Mwenendo
African Economy
Growth, inflation, rates, tax, debt, trade, jobs and the cost of living.
World Bank Says Kenya Could Have Saved KSh117 Billion on SGR
A new World Bank comparison suggests Kenya could have built the Mombasa-Nairobi railway for far less by matching costs on other regional lines. The lender links at least 30 per cent of the potential savings to governance problems, including direct contracting and disputed land compensation. The estimate is a comparison of possible costs, not proof that KSh117 billion was stolen.
Ruto Blames Rising Demand for Milk Shortages as Supply Data Show a Different Picture
President William Ruto says rising employment has lifted milk demand, backing his adviser’s explanation for supermarket shortages. But official figures show less milk entered formal processors for three consecutive months, raising questions about supply and distribution. The disagreement matters to households facing higher prices, farmers choosing buyers and processors struggling to keep supermarket shelves stocked.
Democrats' Congress Win Sets Up Fight Over Trump's Tax and Spending Plans
Democrats' takeover of Congress gives them new power to challenge Donald Trump's tax, budget and spending priorities. The president still holds veto power, but opposition control of both chambers raises the risk of prolonged disputes over federal funding. Businesses and households will be watching whether the new political balance changes taxes, public spending and economic confidence.
Democrats' Congress Win Puts Trump's Tariff Powers Under Pressure
Democrats' takeover of Congress gives US lawmakers a stronger platform to challenge the cost and reach of Donald Trump's tariffs. The result could intensify hearings and legislative disputes, but it does not automatically cancel duties already imposed by the White House. African exporters and US importers will be watching whether the new Congress can turn criticism into changes in trade rules.
Cost of Living Anger Fuels Democrats' Sweeping US Midterm Victory
Voters frustrated by household costs helped turn the US midterm elections into a major defeat for Donald Trump's Republicans. Reuters reported that nearly nine in ten voters surveyed considered the cost of living a major factor in their choice. The result puts pressure on both parties to show how their decisions affect household budgets, jobs and prices.
US Midterms Could Decide the Next Chapter of Africa’s Trade with America
AGOA is due to expire at the end of 2026, leaving African exporters facing a fresh test of access to the US market. The next Congress will inherit a trade programme the Trump administration wants to modernise, while two African countries face removal. The result could shape the debate over tariffs, investment and the terms of America’s economic engagement with Africa.
US Moves to Remove South Africa and Rwanda from Duty-Free Trade Programme
South African exporters face a major change in access to the US market after Washington announced a planned break from AGOA. The proposed move takes effect on 1 January 2027 and could expose key exports to higher import duties. South Africa shipped about KSh221 billion in goods to the US under the programme last year, Reuters reported.
Kenya Sets 50% Local Manufacturing Target as Industry Summit Opens
Kenya wants locally made goods to supply half of domestic demand, up from about 30%, as manufacturers gather in Nairobi. The government says the country imports nearly 70% of the goods it consumes, leaving room for local factories to expand. Manufacturers say cheaper financing, reliable power, better logistics and predictable taxes will determine whether the target becomes reality.
Three Autumns, Three Truces: Mbadi Must Put the Lecturers' KSh 20B Into the Budget
Kenya's public university lecturers return on Monday for the third autumn running, carried back by a promise rather than a payment. Three strikes since September 2024 have cost students about 143 days of teaching, close to a full semester lost. We set four demands for the Treasury, the universities and Parliament, starting with one named budget line in November.
Ten Clean Days, Zero Visas: Saudi Arabia's Blanket Ban Punishes Kenya's Migrant Workers
Saudi Arabia froze every visa for travellers from Kenya on the same day Kenya marked ten days without a new Ebola case. The World Health Organization's chief warned weeks ago against exactly this kind of blanket ban, with a pointed line about transparency. Mwenendo sets three demands for Nairobi with a 7 November deadline, starting with a written date for lifting the freeze.
UASU Ends Month-Long Lecturers' Strike After Government Commits KSh 20B to Pay Deal
Public university lecturers return to class on Monday after a four-week walkout that kept students at home through October. The final settlement sits far closer to the government's opening offer than to the figure the union first put on the table. Arrears stretching back to July 2025 will reach pay slips in stages, with one tranche landing in January 2027 salaries.
Rain, a Tax Cut and a Steady Shilling: The Three Props Behind the CBK's Rate Pause
The Central Bank of Kenya named three things it was counting on in October, and they are now faring very differently. The price gauge that strips out fuel and fresh food has climbed from 3.4% to 4.3% in just two months. Mwenendo's reading is that December's rate call now turns on milk and flour as much as on the pump.
Kerosene Jumps 14.7% as Kenya's October Consumer Prices Climb 7.3% on Fuel Costs
Kenya's inflation has reached its highest level in more than three years, leaving prices just short of the central bank's ceiling. Kerosene, the cooking fuel for many low-income homes, recorded the steepest monthly rise of the three main pump fuels. Underlying price pressure is also rising, which puts the Central Bank of Kenya's December rate decision under closer watch.
Angola Bets on 5.5% Growth in 2027 Budget as Non-Oil Economy Offsets Falling Crude Output
Angola's draft 2027 budget targets growth of about 5.5% even as oil output slips and the oil sector shrinks. The plan assumes crude at KSh 9,209 ($71) a barrel, well below recent market levels, and a deficit of 3.8% of GDP. Non-oil activity is expected to carry the expansion while inflation eases but remains in high single digits.
Uganda Inflation Hits 5.8%: Shilling Slump Pushes Food Prices to a Three-Year High
Uganda's inflation has reached its highest level in more than three years as a weakening shilling lifts the cost of everyday food. Food inflation more than doubled in one month, while the central bank's emergency rate rise has yet to cool prices. The squeeze reaches Kenyan traders who rely on Ugandan shoppers and a currency that keeps losing ground.
Close State House 37 Times Over: Sifuna's KSh 500B Cut Needs Names, Not Slogans
Abolishing State House's entire budget would deliver less than 3% of the KSh 500B cut Edwin Sifuna promised on Friday. Once debt interest and protected county money are set aside, the promised cut takes about one shilling in six from everything else. President Ruto's PAYE pledge carries the same blank space, and three institutions can fill both in before the bills arrive.
Israel Election Stalemate Leaves Netanyahu as Caretaker as Oil Markets Watch
Partial results give Netanyahu's bloc about 53 seats and the opposition 48, leaving no clear majority in the Knesset. Tel Aviv stocks fell and the shekel weakened more than 2 per cent as investors priced in prolonged uncertainty. African fuel importers will track whether the caretaker government extends or ends temporary tax relief on petrol.
Spain Train Crash Costs Mount as High-Speed Links Stay Closed
A high-speed train collision near Toledo has killed at least 68 people and disrupted key Madrid-Andalusia routes. Tourism operators in Seville estimate thousands of daily visitors affected as ticket sales remain suspended until mid-December. The second fatal crash of 2026 raises fresh questions over maintenance spending on Spain's rail network.
Kenya’s KSh39bn Floating LNG Power Plant Faces a Long Road to Delivery
Kenya is weighing a floating gas-fired power plant at Dongo Kundu as expensive thermal generation continues to weigh on electricity costs. The proposed 1,200MW project is estimated to cost KSh39bn, but official project documents show it remains at an early development stage. The plan also depends on imported liquefied natural gas, raising questions about fuel supply, infrastructure and the final cost to consumers.
Oil Climbs Above KSh 14,900 a Barrel After Reported Saudi Refinery Attack
Brent crude climbed above KSh 14,900 a barrel after Yemen’s Houthi group claimed a missile strike on a major Saudi refinery. The attack had not been immediately confirmed by Saudi authorities, leaving traders weighing renewed supply risks against an uncertain regional outlook. For Kenya, sustained high crude prices could increase import costs and pressure transport and business expenses, although pump prices do not change automatically.
Kenya Economy Grows 5.1 Per Cent in Second Quarter Despite Oil and Weather Pressure
Kenya’s real GDP grew 5.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, the statistics bureau said. Services held up while agriculture slowed to 3.5 per cent after shorter rains and higher oil prices. The figures show resilience in transport but continued pressure on farming households and fuel costs.
Mwingi Pledges: Ruto Promises 1,000 More Affordable Homes and Sets an $8B Foreign Investment Goal
President William Ruto says construction of another 1,000 affordable housing units will begin in Mwingi, with more housing projects planned for the wider region. Procurement for major dams in Kitui North is due to start in the coming months, backed by the National Infrastructure Fund. The government wants to lift annual foreign direct investment from KSh 415.4B ($3.2B) to KSh 1.04T ($8B), although no timeline has been given.
Paid in Part, Signed in Full: The NHIF Deal Kenya's Big Hospitals Must Refuse
A Nyanza clinic with KSh 870,000 ($6,700) in claims was offered KSh 370,000 ($2,850), and payment required signing that the debt was settled. From Monday, SHA's verification teams reach the bigger facilities, each owed KSh 10M ($77,000) or more by the defunct NHIF. Mwenendo names who must strike the clause, and why a discount nobody can check is not the same as fraud control.
Build First, Consult Later: Kenya's Housing Drive Is Losing in Court, Not at the Bank
Three court rulings have frozen more than 11,000 planned affordable homes, over six times what the programme had marketed by June 2025. In Lang'ata, the environmental licence arrived five days after judges had ordered construction to stop, and it did not survive. The figures suggest the tightest limit on Kenya's flagship housing promise is no longer money but the order the state works in.
Waive KSh 700,000, Save KSh 893,200: The Stacked-Tax Maths of Ruto's Electric Car Promise
President William Ruto promised in May that Kenya's first 100,000 imported electric vehicles would pay no import duty at all. Because Kenya stacks its car taxes on top of each other, scrapping one of them is worth more than its own price tag. A customs notice published five weeks after the promise lists a different duty rate for the cars Kenyans import today.
Profits Up 17.63%, Tax Up 2.06%: Kenya's Banks Enjoy a Subsidy Nobody Has Costed
Kenya's banks grew profits more than eight times faster than their corporate tax bill in 2025, and the reason sits inside Treasury's own borrowing. On Mwenendo's arithmetic, the gap is worth about KSh 10.81B ($83.23M), more than twice the Hustler Fund top-up the President promised. The Treasury's latest report on tax breaks costs KSh 286.5B ($2.21B) of forgone revenue, yet never mentions tax-free infrastructure bonds.
A Speech Is Not a Law: Seven Gates Stand Between Ruto's Tax Cuts and Your Payslip
A worker on KSh 32,333 ($248.93) a month keeps paying KSh 2,083.25 in tax every month the promised law is not in force. One constitutional clause lets Parliament's Finance Committee rewrite the Treasury's draft before MPs ever vote on it. The phone duty cut cannot be settled in Nairobi alone, because its route runs through a regional calendar.
Treasury Plan Lifts Tax-Free Pay Threshold: 362,846 More Workers Would Stop Paying PAYE
Treasury wants to lift untaxed monthly income from KSh 24,000 ($184.94) to KSh 32,333 ($249.16), exempting 362,846 more formal workers. The plan would also scrap the KSh 2,400 ($18.49) relief every worker now gets, so some pay packets would shrink. Workers earning above KSh 50,000 ($385.21) a month would pay more under the proposed income tax bands.
Zero Tax, Still Docked KSh 3,693: Payslip Deductions Outrun Kenya's KSh 2,083 PAYE Cut
A worker set to gain most from Kenya's zero-tax band keeps KSh 2,083.25 ($16.05) more, but first loses KSh 3,692.66 to deductions. Replacing the KSh 2,400 ($18.49) relief with a zero band costs so much that higher earners may end up footing the bill. The new exemption reaches about one Kenyan worker in 60, leaving the informal majority to pay through VAT and excise instead.
Shillings That Shrink in the Bank: The Real Interest Rate Every Kenyan Saver Should Know
A Kenyan saver can end the year with more shillings in the bank and still afford noticeably less shopping. Withholding tax quietly turns a fixed deposit that beats inflation on paper into a shortfall once the money lands. Even the best-paying one-year Treasury bill now stays less than one percentage point ahead of rising prices after tax.
A Railway With Three Price Tags: Kenya Must See the KSh 651B SGR Loan First
Kenya's railway to the Ugandan border became KSh 148B ($1.14B) dearer in a single year, and its lenders still have no names. The new KSh 651B ($5.01B) bill nearly matches everything Kenya borrowed from China to build the line from Mombasa to Naivasha. We set out four demands, starting with a public account of the increase from the National Treasury by 30 November.
Libya’s Eastern Parliament Names Interim Central Bank Chief as Resignation Advances
Libya’s divided political institutions face another test after lawmakers in the east took a step towards replacing the central bank governor. The parliament’s presidency has accepted Naji Issa’s resignation in principle and assigned board member Fowzi Abukhzam to act temporarily. The western-based High Council of State has challenged the move, leaving the leadership question politically contested.
CBK Survey Finds Kenyan Business Leaders Expect Growth Despite Global Risks
Kenyan business leaders remain hopeful about the coming year, but confidence is only one part of the economic picture facing firms. The Central Bank's latest survey points to improving expectations, even as higher fuel costs and household expenses challenge demand. The key test is whether optimism translates into investment, hiring and stronger sales over the next 12 months.
Fuel Relief, Slower Growth: South Africa Cuts 2026 Forecast to 1.2% as Debt Stabilises
South Africa cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.6% while reporting debt has stabilised for the first time in nearly two decades. A temporary fuel levy cut costing R10B (KSh 79.35B, $610M) starts on 4 November, funded from money held in the Central Energy Fund. Treasury says much of a R17.1B (KSh 135.69B, $1.04B) tax revenue upgrade rests on commodity prices that may fade.
Four of Nine Infected at the Bedside: Kenya Is Defending Tourism at the Wrong Door
Four of Kenya's nine Ebola patients caught the virus while caring for the first one, and their protection is still unfunded in public. The only dedicated Ebola money Mwenendo has been able to trace is a foreign gift worth about KSh 129M ($1M). Each new infection on a ward restarts a 42-day clock that keeps Ebola beside Kenya's name in its top tourism market.
Fuel Costs Bite: South Africa's Inflation Edges Up to 4.5% in September, Below the 4.7% Forecast
South Africa's annual inflation rose to 4.5% in September, a smaller increase than economists had expected. Higher fuel-driven transport costs lifted prices 0.4% on the month and exposed the country's reliance on imported fuel. The softer reading will shape how African economies under fuel-import pressure judge the next policy moves.
Rural Roads Plan: KeNHA Seeks US$600M World Bank Funding for 536km Across Seven Counties
The Kenya National Highways Authority has issued a General Procurement Notice for a programme to upgrade about 536km of climate-resilient rural roads, for which Kenya seeks KSh 77.92B ($600M) from the World Bank. The financing is not yet approved, and contractors must pass an initial selection process before bidding for road works in seven counties. The project also covers bridges and buildings and digital systems at three border stations.
Land Deal Relief: Treasury Proposes Stamp Duty Exemption for Transactions Worth KSh 1M or Less
Kenyans buying or transferring land worth KSh 1M ($7,706) or less could pay no stamp duty under a Treasury proposal, but the rates for dearer deals are still unknown. Higher-value transactions would move to progressive rates, yet no schedule, start date or revenue estimate has been published, so the full cost of buying land remains unclear. The proposal goes to Parliament next week, where the tabled text will show who gains and who pays more.
Graduate Jobs Push: Ruto Adds 50,000 National Internship Places From January 2027
President William Ruto announced 50,000 additional National Internship Programme places for university, TVET and KMTC graduates, starting in January 2027, at the Mashujaa Day celebrations in Eldoret on 20 October. Interns will receive a monthly stipend and be placed through a digital, merit-based system, while private employers are promised incentives, but the stipend amount and the incentive terms were not given. The programme's current size, total cost and eligibility rules beyond graduate status were also not stated, so the expansion's reach and price to taxpayers remain unconfirmed.
A KSh 500 Pay Rise Could Cost KSh 1,733: The Trapdoor in Ruto's Tax Gift
President William Ruto told the Mashujaa Day crowd in Eldoret that Kenyans earning KSh 32,333 ($249.16) a month or less would be exempted from paying PAYE income tax. Personal relief already cancels the tax on the first KSh 24,000 of monthly pay, so the most any worker can gain is KSh 2,083.25 ($16.05) a month. If the line works as a hard threshold, a worker earning KSh 500 more would owe KSh 2,233.25 and take home KSh 1,733 less than a colleague just below it. The 10% and 25% income tax bands have not moved since January 2021, which gives low earners a fair claim to relief after years of rising prices. Mwenendo argues the National Treasury must table the design, the annual cost and the funding plan before Parliament's Finance Committee sends the proposal to a vote.
Houthi Missiles Kill 53 Recruits in Shabwa as Gulf Escalation Raises Questions for Kenya's Fuel Imports
Three Houthi missiles hit a Yemeni government training camp in Shabwa province, killing at least 53 recruits and wounding more than 200, in what is described as the deadliest attack since July. Yemeni government forces responded with 13 air strikes on Houthi positions and vehicles across Taiz governorate, while Riyadh's airport stays closed after earlier Houthi attacks, with flights grounded for over a week. Kenya relies on fuel imports from Saudi Arabia under a government-to-government arrangement, and its pump price ceilings hold until the next EPRA review on 14 November. The volumes, pricing and duration of the Saudi deal have not been published, so the effect of the escalation on Kenya's import bill cannot yet be quantified from public information.
Air Tickets Before Clinics: Counties Get KSh 71B More While Billions Sit Idle
Counties spent KSh 17B ($130.87M) on travel in the year to June 2026, more than the KSh 10.51B ($80.91M) value of every development project they reported as stalled. Almost half of the KSh 233.69B ($1.80B) set aside for county roads, markets, water schemes and clinics went unspent, and Kisumu used barely a quarter of its share. About three shillings in every four of Monday's KSh 71.09B ($547.26M) top-up are loans and grants from development partners, and loans are repaid whether or not projects open. Counties owed suppliers KSh 172.53B ($1.33B) at the end of June, with Nairobi City alone accounting for roughly half of the money owed to firms that already delivered. Mwenendo argues the Treasury, the Controller of Budget and the Senate should tie every conditional shilling to verified pending bills and finished projects before any money moves.
The Ghosts Have Passwords: Jogoo House Headcount Misses 4.7 Million Untimed Payroll Edits
Ministry of Education staff must queue at Jogoo House in Nairobi from 19 to 22 October with their IDs and appointment letters, or risk having their salaries stopped. An audit of 12 of the government's 53 state departments flagged KSh 4.34B ($33.40M) in special salary payments, the largest item in about KSh 5.9B of irregular earnings. About 720 users changed 4,732,082 payroll records on the government's HRIS-K system without system timestamps, and 77 employees were found to have edited their own pay records. The Cabinet promised a unified personnel identification system in September 2024, yet more than 300 state corporations had still not joined the new payroll platform by July 2026. Parliament did not approve a KSh 138M ($1.06M) Treasury request to strengthen the payroll system, a sum equal to about 2.2% of the KSh 6.2B ($47.76M) in suspected irregularities.
Ruto Signs Bill Sending KSh 71.09B to Counties as Spending Gaps Persist
President William Ruto signed the County Governments Additional Allocations Bill, 2026 on Monday, giving the 47 counties an extra KSh 71.09B ($547.26M) for the 2026/27 financial year. Of that sum, KSh 16.46B ($126.71M) comes from the national government's allocation and KSh 53.82B ($414.32M) from loans and grants from development partners. The two components add up to KSh 70.28B ($541.03M), about KSh 0.81B ($6.24M) short of the headline figure, a gap the reported details do not explain.
Kenya House Prices Rise 2.2% in a Year as Standalone Homes Outpace Apartments
Kenya's residential property price index rose to 120.29 in the second quarter of 2026 from 117.73 a year earlier, an annual increase of 2.2% according to official statistics. Standalone houses drove the gains while apartment prices were nearly flat year on year, a split that matters to buyers weighing which type of home to purchase. The index also rose 1.6% from the first quarter of 2026, showing that prices continued to climb through the first half of the year.
China Growth Quickens to 4.5%: Property Slump Deepens as Retail Sales Beat Forecasts
China's economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, ahead of a 4.4% Reuters poll forecast and up from 4.3% in the second quarter, the weakest in more than three years. Quarterly growth was 1.2% against 0.9% in the previous quarter, while September retail sales rose 1.1% and industrial output 5.5%, both at or above forecasts. Property investment fell 20.6% in January to September, a deeper slide than the 19.9% drop recorded for the first eight months of the year.
Count the Debts First: Ichung'wah's Plan to Close Six Agencies Hides Unpaid Salaries
One of the six agencies Kenya plans to close reported KSh 176.9M ($1.36M) in unpaid obligations for six months, including salaries and staff deductions it had not remitted. The Bill's memorandum says closure should not need extra public spending, yet no figure for the loans, contracts and court cases moving to the Treasury has been published. Kerio Valley's authority once faced a KSh 14.81B ($114.1M) arbitration claim over two cancelled dams, the kind of exposure a repeal law quietly sweeps up. Even the State Department responsible for the agencies told MPs in August it wanted a 12-month transition, undercutting the idea that closing them is simple and cheap. Mwenendo argues the Treasury and the Bill's sponsor must table a full schedule of debts before MPs vote, starting with the hearings in Kilifi, Kisumu and Embu.
Nandi Road Plan: Ruto Announces KSh 20B Programme Covering 350 Kilometres of Rural Links
The government has announced a KSh 20B ($154.07M) programme to build and upgrade 350 kilometres of roads in Nandi County, with construction launched on one 17-kilometre link. The Labuiywo-Kapkoros-Koisagat road costs KSh 1.3B ($10.01M) and is meant to connect Nandi Hills with Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet and West Pokot counties. No contractor, funding source, completion date or cost breakdown for the wider 350 kilometres was named, so delivery timelines for farmers and traders remain unconfirmed.
Kenya's Economy Grows 5.1% in Q2: Power, Telecoms and Finance Outrun Slower Farming and Construction
Real GDP growth rose to 5.1% in the second quarter of 2026 from 4.9% a year earlier, with electricity and water supply leading the large sectors at 7.7%. Agriculture slowed to 3.5% from 4.0% after the long rains ended early in May, and construction eased to 6.0% from 7.3% a year earlier. Average crude oil prices climbed from KSh 8,748 ($67.44) to KSh 13,548 ($104.45) a barrel over the year, a cost pressure cited alongside global energy market disruption.
Cheaper Debt, Higher Rating: Moody's Lifts Ghana to B3 and Turns Outlook Stable
Moody's raised Ghana's sovereign rating to B3 from Caa1 on 9 October 2026, its second upgrade within a year, and changed the outlook to stable from positive. The agency credits cheaper domestic financing, fiscal discipline and gold, which made up 67% of Ghana's goods exports in 2025, for supporting the external accounts. Ghana's local currency ceiling rose to Ba3 from B1 and its foreign currency ceiling to B1 from B2, widening the rating room for private borrowers.
Slower Price Rises: Nigeria's Inflation Eases to 14.63% as Food Inflation Edges Up to 19.59%
Nigeria's annual headline inflation slowed to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, and is well below the 20.98% recorded in September last year, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. Food inflation edged up to 19.59% from 19.57% in August, even though food prices fell 1.55% between August and September, so the annual rate is still running close to 20%. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, eased to 12.95% from 13.29%, while month-on-month headline inflation slowed sharply to 0.06% from 0.71% in August.
Predatory Lending Probe: MPs Summon Asset Financiers on 5 November Over Boda Boda Riders' Petition
Kenya's National Assembly Finance and National Planning Committee will hear asset finance lenders on 5 November after boda boda riders petitioned MPs over interest charged on motorcycle loans. Committee chairperson Kimani Kuria says the committee has received 110 cases of alleged predatory lending and that some customers have paid three or four times the amount they borrowed. MPs are also examining weak disclosure of loan terms and repossessions made without proper notice, and could use Standing Order 191 to summon any lender that does not attend. Banks charged an average lending rate of 14.34% in August, so the committee's findings could test how far asset financiers sit outside the rates paid in mainstream credit.
Subsidy Line: Nigeria's Finance Minister Rules Out Fuel Subsidies and Multiple Exchange Rates
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said in Bangkok on 17 October that there will be no return to fuel subsidies or multiple exchange rates, a stance the government ties to fiscal survival. He claimed markets have not priced in opposition pledges to restore the subsidy because investors view the opposition as unserious, a claim for which no market data was cited. Atiku Abubakar pledged in August to restore the petrol subsidy, and Peter Obi reversed his earlier position on 6 October, setting up a subsidy divide before the January 2027 elections.
Thwake Dam: AfDB Backs Final Works as First Phase Reaches 94.2% Completion
The African Development Bank has committed fresh financing for the outstanding works on Thwake Dam, after an earlier KSh 10.6B ($81.58M) package closed a funding gap that had slowed construction. The first phase of the project, estimated at KSh 42.4B ($326.31M), was 94.2% complete this week, with only the concrete face slab and a bridge linking the two counties still outstanding. Water impoundment is targeted for the end of January 2027 and commissioning for April 2027, although both dates depend on the outstanding works finishing on schedule. The wider four-phase programme is meant to supply up to 150,000 cubic metres of treated water a day to about 1.3 million people in Makueni and Kitui, and Konza Technopolis.
CBK Holds Rate at 8.75%: Borrowers Face 14.34% Average Loan Rates as Inflation Rises to 6.8%
The Monetary Policy Committee kept the Central Bank Rate at 8.75% on 7 October 2026, leaving the benchmark unchanged as annual inflation stood at 6.8% in September. Commercial banks charged an average lending rate of 14.34% in August against a deposit rate of 6.91% and a savings rate of 3.54%, a spread of 7.43 points. Short-term money market rates sit close to the benchmark, with the 91-day Treasury bill at 8.75% and the 364-day bill at 9.04%, so government paper competes with bank deposits.
Kenya's Growth Slows to 5.1%: Economy Shrugs Off Iran War Shock and Weak Rains
Kenya's real GDP grew 5.1% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 5.3% in the first quarter but ahead of the 4.9% recorded in the same period of 2025. Electricity and water grew 7.7%, accommodation and food 7.4% and information and communication 7.2%, while agriculture slowed to 3.5% from 4.0% and manufacturing managed only 2.2%. Accommodation and food growth cooled from 12.8% a year earlier to 7.4%, while construction eased to 6.0% from 7.3% and transport and storage picked up to 4.4% from 3.3%.
Nigeria's Foreign Reserves Slip to $55.09B, Ending Nearly Three Months of Gains
Central Bank of Nigeria data show gross reserves at KSh 7.16T ($55.09B) on 14 October, down about KSh 1.30B ($10M) from the previous day. It is the first fall since 28 July, when reserves stood at KSh 6.75T ($51.94B), and follows a rise of about KSh 409.31B ($3.15B) since that low. Fitch Ratings projected in April that reserves could fall to KSh 6.11T ($47B) by the end of 2026, so the next weeks of data will test whether the build-up holds.
Kenya Overtakes Ethiopia as East Africa's Largest Economy in IMF Dollar GDP Rankings
IMF figures in the October 2026 World Economic Outlook put Kenya's economy at KSh 19.64T ($151.15B) this year, ahead of Ethiopia's KSh 16.52T ($127.15B) after five years in second place. The change comes from exchange rates rather than faster growth, because Ethiopia's real output is forecast to expand 9.2% this year against Kenya's 4.5%. Kenya also trails Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda on growth, with Uganda forecast to jump to 9.9% in 2027 and South Sudan leading Africa at 10.5% this year. A steady shilling has lifted Kenya to seventh in Africa with a lead over Ethiopia of about KSh 3.12T ($24B), a gap that could narrow if the currency weakens.
Kenya's Economy Grows 5.1% in Second Quarter as Transport and Hospitality Offset Weaker Farming
Kenya's economy expanded 5.1% in the April to June quarter of 2026, faster than the 4.9% recorded a year earlier but slower than the 5.3% pace of the first quarter. Transport and storage growth climbed to 4.4% from 3.3%, while accommodation and food services grew 7.4% and electricity and water supply 7.7%, the fastest of the sectors reported. Agriculture, which supports most rural households, slowed to 3.5% from 4% after the long rains ended early, even as average crude prices rose to KSh 13,572.23 ($104.45) a barrel.
Bigger Home Loans: Nigeria Proposes Raising Mortgage Cap to ₦85M and Targets 5,000 Mortgages
Nigeria's housing minister has proposed raising the maximum mortgage loan to ₦85M, about KSh 8.30M ($63,910), from ₦50M, in a bid to widen access to home ownership. The government is targeting 2,000 mortgages in 2026 and 5,000 by 2028, with 30% to 40% set aside for informal-sector workers who struggle to prove regular income. The Federal Mortgage Bank has also been told to lend out at least 70% of the previous year's National Housing Fund contributions as mortgages every year.