Kerosene Jumps 14.7% as Kenya's October Consumer Prices Climb 7.3% on Fuel CostsKerosene Jumps 14.7% as Kenya's October Consumer Prices Climb 7.3% on Fuel Costs

The figure, published by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) on 30 October and reported by The Star, leaves prices rising just 0.2 percentage points below the 7.5% ceiling of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) target range.

For households, the jump means wages and savings are losing value faster than at any point in more than three years. A year ago, in October 2025, inflation stood at 4.56%, according to CBK inflation data so the rate has risen by about 2.74 percentage points in twelve months. The narrowing gap between the policy rate and inflation puts the CBK's December decision under closer watch.

Transport costs climb 17.1% on the year

Transport was again the fastest-rising division, with prices up 17.1% on the year in October, compared with 15.6% in September, as Mwenendo reported for the September release. The division added 1.7 percentage points to the headline rate.

The cause sits at the pump. KNBS data cited by Kenyans.co.ke show the national average price of a litre of petrol rose to KSh 227.85 ($1.75) in October from KSh 214.95 in September, an increase of 6%. Diesel rose 4.4% to KSh 228.77 ($1.76), while kerosene, the cooking fuel for many low-income homes, jumped 14.7% to KSh 220.88 ($1.70), up KSh 28.32 ($0.22) a litre.

Fares followed. The matatu fare between Westlands and Kangemi in Nairobi rose to KSh 50 ($0.38) from KSh 40, a 25% increase, according to the KNBS price survey.

Food inflation passes 10%

Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 10.2% on the year, up from 9.5% in September, and contributed 3.1 percentage points of the 7.3% headline. Together, food, transport and housing and utilities make up more than 57% of the weight in the consumer price basket, KNBS Director General Macdonald Obudho said, and they drove most of the October increase.

Staples moved higher over the month. A 500ml packet of fresh milk rose to KSh 64.13 ($0.49) from KSh 61.23, a kilogram of cabbage rose to KSh 82.38 ($0.63) from KSh 79.16, and a kilogram of Irish potatoes rose to KSh 125.06 ($0.96) from KSh 121.98. A 2kg packet of wheat flour climbed to KSh 184.88 ($1.42) from KSh 181.11.

A few prices eased. Sugar fell to KSh 163.84 a kilogram from KSh 165.79, and the cost of 200 units of electricity slipped slightly to KSh 5,529.66 ($42.57) from KSh 5,533.76. A 13kg cooking gas cylinder edged up to KSh 3,429.61 ($26.40).

The housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels division rose 3.7% on the year.

Core inflation rises to 4.3%

Underlying price pressure is also building. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy items, rose to 4.3% in October from 4.0% in September. Non-core inflation, which captures those items, climbed to 15.1% from 14.0%.

The overall consumer price index rose to 157.60 in October from 156.47 in September, a monthly increase of 0.72%.

A steady climb through 2026

October's reading continues a run of increases. CBK data put twelve-month inflation at 4.25% in February 2026, 6.49% in July, 6.59% in August and 6.76% in September, before the KNBS release took it to 7.3%. A rise of more than 0.2 points in November would take inflation above the top of the target range for the first time since 2023.

Pressure points for the next reading

Fuel remains the main risk. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) sets new pump price ceilings on 14 November, and Brent crude has traded near six-month highs this month on Gulf supply fears. Any further increase would feed directly into fares, food distribution costs and kerosene.

For savers, the October figure means a one-year deposit or Treasury bill must now earn more than 7.3% after tax simply to hold its value. For businesses, higher transport and input costs leave less room to absorb prices without passing them on to customers.