China Growth Quickens to 4.5%: Property Slump Deepens as Retail Sales Beat ForecastsChina Growth Quickens to 4.5%: Property Slump Deepens as Retail Sales Beat Forecasts
Key Highlights
- China's economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, ahead of a 4.4% Reuters poll forecast and up from 4.3% in the second quarter, the weakest in more than three years.
- Quarterly growth was 1.2% against 0.9% in the previous quarter, while September retail sales rose 1.1% and industrial output 5.5%, both at or above forecasts.
- Property investment fell 20.6% in January to September, a deeper slide than the 19.9% drop recorded for the first eight months of the year.
China's economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, beating a 4.4% forecast in a Reuters poll and improving on the 4.3% recorded in the second quarter, the weakest pace in more than three years.
The result matters to Kenya and other African exporters because China is a major buyer of their commodities and a major seller of the machinery, electronics and vehicles they import. Firmer growth supports demand for African exports, while a deepening property slump limits how far that demand can rise.
Mwenendo earlier reported that China gave Kenya KSh 258 million ($2 million) for Ebola readiness and drought relief, a reminder of how closely the two economies are linked.
What the National Bureau of Statistics data shows
According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, gross domestic product rose 1.2% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, against a forecast of 1.1% and 0.9% in the second quarter.
September retail sales rose 1.1% year on year, well ahead of the 0.6% forecast and the 0.4% recorded in August. Industrial output grew 5.5%, in line with forecasts and up from 5.2% in August.
Investment is still falling
Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months of the year, in line with the previous period. Property investment fell 20.6% over the same period, compared with a 19.9% fall in January to August.
Analyst Andy Ji of ITC Markets said the People's Bank of China has kept its policy rate steady since a cut in May 2025, and that the live policy debate is now about fiscal support rather than interest rates.
What it means for African exporters
Reuters poll forecasts put China's growth at 4.5% for 2026, down from 5.0% in 2025, and 4.4% for 2027. A slower long-run pace, combined with falling property investment, points to softer demand for construction-linked metals and minerals, even as consumer spending improves.
For Kenya, the effect runs mainly through trade: steadier Chinese demand helps exporters, while imports of Chinese goods continue to shape the trade deficit. Mwenendo has not seen new official figures on that balance in this release, so the direct impact remains to be measured.
In Summary
- Who released the data?
- China's National Bureau of Statistics.
- What was reported?
- Third-quarter GDP growth of 4.5% year on year, against a 4.4% forecast and 4.3% in the second quarter.
- When was it released?
- Monday 19 October 2026, covering July to September.
- Where does it matter?
- China, with trade links to Kenya and other African exporters.
- Why does it matter?
- Firmer growth supports demand for exports, but property investment fell 20.6% in January to September.
- How did other indicators fare?
- September retail sales rose 1.1% and industrial output 5.5%, both at or above forecasts.