Kenya Economy Grows 5.1 Per Cent in Second Quarter Despite Oil and Weather PressureKenya Economy Grows 5.1 Per Cent in Second Quarter Despite Oil and Weather Pressure
Key Highlights
- Kenya’s real GDP grew 5.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, the statistics bureau said.
- Services held up while agriculture slowed to 3.5 per cent after shorter rains and higher oil prices.
- The figures show resilience in transport but continued pressure on farming households and fuel costs.
Kenya’s economy grew 5.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics reported. That was faster than the 4.9 per cent recorded in the second quarter of 2025, even as higher global oil prices and an early end to the long rains weighed on parts of the economy.
Transport and storage expanded 4.4 per cent, up from 3.3 per cent a year earlier. Accommodation and food services grew 7.4 per cent, electricity and water supply 7.7 per cent, information and communication 7.2 per cent, and financial and insurance activities 6.1 per cent. Construction rose 6.0 per cent. These service and infrastructure sectors helped offset weaker performance elsewhere. Related economic coverage is available on the Mwenendo site.
Agriculture slows under shorter rains
Agriculture, forestry and fishing, still the largest employer and a major source of household income, grew 3.5 per cent, down from 4.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2025. The March-to-May long rains ended early, affecting crop production. Tea production rose 11.1 per cent to 162,600 tonnes and coffee exports increased, providing partial support, but the overall sector slowed.
Average crude oil prices climbed to KSh 13,579 ($104.45) a barrel in the quarter from KSh 8,767 ($67.44) a year earlier, according to the KNBS report. The higher energy cost feeds into transport, manufacturing and household budgets through fuel prices set in subsequent EPRA reviews. Inflation had already moved higher earlier in the year, driven in part by food and transport.
What the numbers mean for ordinary households
For most Kenyans the 5.1 per cent figure translates into uneven pressure. Farmers and rural households feel the slower agricultural growth and any rise in food prices, while urban workers in services, transport and construction see steadier activity.
Higher fuel costs affect matatu fares, delivery prices and the cost of goods moving from farm to market. The Central Bank of Kenya has held its policy rate at 8.75 per cent, keeping borrowing conditions relatively steady while watching inflation.
What happens next depends on the third-quarter rains, the path of global oil prices and how quickly the next fuel-price adjustment lands. Full-year growth projections from the Central Bank have been set around 5 per cent. The second-quarter numbers confirm that services can carry the economy through an oil and weather shock, but they also show that the agricultural base remains sensitive to rainfall patterns that ordinary households feel first.
In Summary
- How fast did Kenya’s economy grow?
- Real GDP grew 5.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.9 per cent a year earlier.
- What slowed agriculture?
- Shorter long rains reduced crop production, holding agricultural growth to 3.5 per cent.
- How did oil prices affect the quarter?
- Average crude oil rose to KSh 13,579 ($104.45) a barrel from KSh 8,767 ($67.44) a year earlier.