Kerosene's Pump Rise More Than Doubled Its Import Rise: EPRA Must Explain by 14 NovemberKerosene's Pump Rise More Than Doubled Its Import Rise: EPRA Must Explain by 14 November

The facts are not in dispute. EPRA's own figures show the Nairobi ceiling for kerosene rose KSh 28.49 ($0.22) a litre, from KSh 191.38 ($1.47) to KSh 219.87 ($1.69), a rise of 14.89% for the cycle running from 15 October to 14 November.

The landed cost of kerosene, the price at Mombasa before local taxes and margins, rose by about KSh 12.25 ($0.09) a litre over the same comparison. Mwenendo set out the landed cost against the ceiling for all three fuels when the review was published.

The poorest fuel took the biggest hit

Petrol and diesel behaved as the import numbers would predict. Petrol's landed cost rose about KSh 13.40 ($0.10) a litre and its ceiling rose KSh 12.93 ($0.10). Diesel's landed cost rose about KSh 14.05 ($0.11) and its ceiling rose KSh 9.90 ($0.08). Both ceilings rose by less than the import bill.

Kerosene went the other way. Its ceiling rose KSh 16.24 ($0.13) a litre more than its import cost did. On Mwenendo's illustration, a household that buys 10 litres a month pays about KSh 162 ($1.25) more than the import increase alone would justify, and about KSh 285 ($2.19) more in total than a month ago.

That is small money for a boardroom and real money for a household cooking on a daily-wage income. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics measured the average kerosene price at KSh 220.88 ($1.70) in October, up 14.7% in a month, the steepest rise of the three pump fuels.

Annual inflation reached 7.3%, the fastest pace since July 2023, as Mwenendo reported in Kenya's October inflation figures.

What EPRA has said, and what it has not

EPRA's explanation, as relayed to Mwenendo, is that the fuel subsidy that applied from the April pricing cycle has ended. It also said it would not draw on price stabilisation this cycle, to keep funds for later. Both statements are plausible. Neither answers the question.

A subsidy that ends can lift a pump price above the import trend. But the size of that effect is a number, and EPRA holds it. Mwenendo has not seen a product-by-product breakdown that tells a reader how much of the KSh 16.24 ($0.13) gap the subsidy explains, how much is tax, and how much is margin.

The comparison above is indicative, because import costs and pump prices cover different periods and pump prices carry taxes, levies and margins. That caveat is exactly why EPRA must publish the full build-up and settle the matter.

The strongest case for the authority is that the formula is mechanical, that the subsidy was always temporary, and that holding prices artificially low only moves the bill to the next cycle. We accept that a regulator cannot freeze prices indefinitely. We do not accept that it can leave the least cushioned households guessing why the cheapest cooking option got dearer fastest.

Why 14 November matters

The review due on 14 November will set ceilings for the next month. Brent crude has stayed near six-month highs, and the Treasury's 8% VAT relief on fuel, which Parliament voted to keep for a further 90 days, is on a clock.

Mwenendo calculated that the fuel VAT relief would add roughly KSh 16.81 ($0.13) to a litre of petrol if it lapsed, and Finance Committee chair Kimani Kuria puts its cost at about KSh 54B ($416.25M) over six months.

Inflation is already close to the 7.5% ceiling of the Central Bank of Kenya's target range, as the CBK's inflation data show. Non-core inflation, which captures food and energy, reached 15.1% in October. A second unexplained step in kerosene would land on households that have no room left to absorb it.

Four demands

First, EPRA must publish, before the 14 November review, a product-by-product price build-up for the 15 October to 14 November cycle: landed cost, taxes, levies, margins and any subsidy effect, for petrol, diesel and kerosene.

Second, EPRA must state in writing how much of the KSh 28.49 ($0.22) kerosene rise came from the end of the subsidy, and say whether the same adjustment was applied to petrol and diesel.

Third, EPRA must publish the balance of its price stabilisation funds and the reason it chose to draw nothing this cycle, so that Kenyans can judge whether kerosene should have been shielded.

Fourth, the National Treasury must tell households, before the VAT relief lapses, whether any protection for kerosene is planned, and at what cost.

None of this asks the regulator to hold a price it cannot hold. It asks it to show its arithmetic. A fuel that low-income households cannot easily replace should not rise by more than twice its import cost without an explanation on the public record, and the 14 November review is the date by which EPRA owes it.