Pump Gap: Landed Cost of Petrol Rose 11.81% While the Nairobi Ceiling Rose 6.04%Pump Gap: Landed Cost of Petrol Rose 11.81% While the Nairobi Ceiling Rose 6.04%

The comparison comes from figures published by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) with its latest price review. It shows that the three fuels did not move in step with import costs, and kerosene moved furthest from them.

Petrol and diesel: ceilings rose less than import costs

The landed cost of super petrol, the price of a cubic metre delivered to Mombasa before local taxes and margins, rose from KSh 113,409 ($874.26) to KSh 126,808 ($977.55) at the August exchange rate of KSh 129.72 to the dollar. Spread over 1,000 litres, that is a rise of about KSh 13.40 ($0.10) a litre, compared with a pump ceiling rise of KSh 12.93 ($0.10).

Diesel shows a wider gap. Its landed cost rose 11.32% from $957.05 to $1,065.38 a cubic metre, about KSh 14.05 ($0.11) a litre, yet the Nairobi ceiling rose 4.54%, or KSh 9.90 ($0.08), to KSh 227.76 ($1.76).

The two sets of figures cover different periods and the pump price also carries taxes, levies and margins, so the comparison is indicative and not a full breakdown of the price build-up.

Kerosene moves the other way

Kerosene went in the opposite direction. Its landed cost rose 9.41%, from $1,003.87 to $1,098.31 a cubic metre, or about KSh 12.25 ($0.09) a litre. The Nairobi ceiling rose 14.89%, or KSh 28.49 ($0.22), to KSh 219.87 ($1.69), more than double the import cost increase in shillings.

The material available to Mwenendo does not explain the difference. EPRA cited the end of the fuel subsidy that applied from the April pricing cycle, but a product-by-product breakdown was not part of the figures seen. Mwenendo has not confirmed whether the subsidy or other charges account for the kerosene gap.

For households that use kerosene for cooking and lighting, the ceiling rise is the one that matters, whatever its cause.

No stabilisation draw this cycle

EPRA said it would not introduce price stabilisation in this cycle, to save funds for later use. That means the gap between petrol and diesel import costs and the pump ceilings is not explained by a stabilisation payment in this review.

EPRA Director General Edward Mwirigi Kinyua said September was the worst month since the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran began, and that super petrol had reached $1,300 (KSh 168,636) per metric tonne from an initial $600 (KSh 77,832). Prices include value added tax at 8%.

As Mwenendo earlier reported, Parliament voted to keep VAT on fuel at 8% for a further 90 days, while Mwenendo's first report on the review set out the new Nairobi ceilings. With Brent crude still near KSh 13,703 ($105.46) a barrel, the next test of the gap between import costs and ceilings comes with the review due on 14 November.

Correction, 16 October 2026: Replaced the duplicate ceilings story with a new angle (landed cost versus pump ceiling by fuel) and removed Mombasa prices that did not match earlier Mwenendo reporting.