Mwenendo
African Economy
Growth, inflation, rates, tax, debt, trade, jobs and the cost of living.
Home-Grown Ratings: African Union Launches AfCRA in Mauritius as Kenya Plans Talks on a Nairobi Base
The African Union has launched the Africa Credit Rating Agency in Mauritius, an African-led body meant to assess the continent's economies more accurately and ease the financing challenges its borrowers face. Mauritius minister Jyoti Jeetun said the agency is not about asking the world to rate Africa more favourably, while President William Ruto urged leaders to protect its independence and methodological integrity. Kenya will open talks on making Nairobi a secondary jurisdiction for the agency and on becoming a sovereign client, though ownership, funding and fee details were not reported.
Uganda Shock Rate Hike: Central Bank Lifts Key Rate to 12.0% to Defend the Shilling
Bank of Uganda raised its Central Bank Rate by 2.25 percentage points to 12.0% at an emergency meeting on 14 October, called ahead of the scheduled November sitting. Governor Michael Atingi-Ego warned that the shilling's slide could amplify inflation, which stood at 4.60% in September, below the central bank's 5.00% medium-term target. The shilling is down about 11% against the dollar this year and gained more than 2% after the decision, after weeks of record lows.
Kenya Business Activity Turns Up: Stanbic PMI Rises to 51.3 as New Orders Grow
Kenya's private sector returned to growth in September, with the Stanbic Purchasing Managers' Index rising to 51.3 from 49.7 in August, its strongest reading since January. New orders rose for a fourth straight month, yet output fell for a seventh month, leaving firms selling more while producing slightly less. About 30% of firms reported higher input costs, and selling prices rose at the second-fastest pace since November 2023, which keeps pressure on shoppers.
Ethiopia joins PAPSS: Central bank enters Africa's local-currency payments network
Ethiopia's central bank has joined the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, which the platform announced on 15 October 2026, extending a network built to settle cross-border trade in local currencies. PAPSS began in January 2022 with 10 commercial banks and now links more than 150 banks across over 15 countries, including Nigeria, Zambia, Malawi, Kenya and Tunisia. South Africa remains outside the network, which leaves a gap in a system designed to cut dollar dependence and correspondent-bank costs in intra-African trade.
Pending Bills: Cabinet Clears KSh 23.74B ($0.18B) for 28,726 Supplier Claims Worth KSh 50M or Less
Cabinet approved settlement of 28,726 verified pending bills worth KSh 23.74B ($0.18B), all owed to suppliers and contractors with claims of KSh 50M ($0.39M) or less, with small firms first in line. The payout is about 3.57% of the KSh 664.8B ($5.12B) in claims submitted and 15.28% of the KSh 155.34B ($1.20B) the verification committee recommended for settlement. The Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry calls the approval an initial step, wants verification finished and county arrears paid, while reports name no funding source or payment date.
Fake Invoice Probe: KRA Says 72 Firms Issued KSh 33.83B in Fake Tax Invoices
Tax investigators allege that 72 companies issued 62,869 electronic invoices worth KSh 33.83B ($260.61M) between 2020 and 2025, and buyers claimed about KSh 4B ($30.78M) in input VAT on them. Fifty-seven investigation files have gone to the Director of Public Prosecutions, which has approved prosecution of 42 individuals, companies and directors, while six suspects have been arrested. Several of the companies had not filed returns, ran no genuine operations or could not be found at their registered addresses, and KRA is disabling invoicing devices tied to the scheme.
Matatu Fares Up 10%: Operators Pass On EPRA Fuel Rise as Commuter Costs Climb
Matatu Owners Association chairman Albert Karakacha told members on 15 October to raise fares by 10% with immediate effect, the same day EPRA lifted pump price ceilings. Nairobi petrol now has a ceiling of KSh 226.96 ($1.75) a litre, up KSh 12.93 ($0.10), while diesel rises KSh 9.90 ($0.08) to KSh 227.76 ($1.75). A commuter paying an illustrative KSh 100 ($0.77) each way would pay KSh 440 ($3.39) more over a 22-day working month, before any route-specific rise. The matatu association says the fuel rise breaks an earlier pledge on diesel prices, while the Motorists Association has demanded a pricing breakdown, an audit of fuel imports and a review of taxes.
Rwanda Inflation Hits 17.2%: Vegetable Prices Push Urban Food Costs Up 20.9%
Rwanda's urban consumer prices rose 17.2% in the year to September 2026, up from 15.7% in August, after a 2.7% jump in a single month. Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 20.9% year on year, with vegetables up 35.1%, and the food index climbed 5.3% between August and September alone. Core inflation, which strips out fresh food and energy, stood at 11.4%, well above the 7.3% urban rate recorded in September 2025.
Downside Risks Loom: IMF Sees Africa Growing 4.5% in 2026 and 5% in 2027
The International Monetary Fund projects growth in Africa at 4.5% in 2026, slightly above its earlier estimate, rising to 5% in 2027, according to the head of its Africa department. Development assistance to the continent fell sharply last year and is forecast to drop a further 12% this year, tightening room for governments that rely on donor funding. Zeine Zeidane said risks remain firmly tilted to the downside, naming renewed energy disruption, a sharp rise in global risk aversion and a strong El Nino as possible pressures.
Vegetable Squeeze: Egypt's Urban Inflation Eases to 13.9% as Monthly Prices Rise 1.3%
Egypt's annual urban inflation eased to 13.9% in September from 14.5% in August, but monthly inflation accelerated to 1.3% from 0.1% as vegetable prices rose 15.1% on the month. Meat and poultry rose 2.5% and fruit 2.6% on the month, while actual rentals rose 0.9% and electricity, gas and other fuels 0.5%, widening the squeeze beyond fresh produce. Nationwide annual inflation moved the other way, edging up to 12.8% in September from 12.7% in August, so the urban easing does not describe prices across all of Egypt.
Fourth Straight Fall: Nigeria's Inflation Slows to 14.63% in September as Food Prices Drop
Nigeria's year-on-year headline inflation slowed to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, the fourth consecutive monthly decline and below the 15.5% rise analysts had forecast. Food prices fell 1.55% on the month in September after rising 1.02% in August, while annual food inflation stood at 19.59%, still close to 20% for households buying staples. Core inflation eased to 12.95% year on year from 13.29% in August, but its monthly rate rose to 1.11% from minus 0.06%, a sign underlying price pressure has not vanished.
Board Pay Reset: SRC Lifts State Corporation Chairs to KSh 130,000 a Month
The Salaries and Remuneration Commission has raised monthly honoraria for state corporation board chairs to KSh 130,000 ($1,001) from about KSh 80,000 ($616), according to a letter dated 13 October 2026. Board members receive no monthly honoraria, but their sitting allowance rises to KSh 30,000 ($231) a meeting from KSh 20,000 ($154), and chairs draw the allowance on top of their monthly pay. The honoraria increase alone adds about KSh 174M ($1.34M) a year across roughly 290 state corporations, as Kenya works to contain a public wage bill of about KSh 1.3T ($10B).
CBK Holds Rate at 8.75%: Policymakers Keep Borrowing Costs Steady as Inflation Ticks Up
The Central Bank of Kenya's Monetary Policy Committee held the Central Bank Rate at 8.75% on 7 October 2026, leaving the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged from its previous meeting. Overall inflation rose to 6.8% in September from 6.6% in August, while core inflation climbed to 4.0% from 3.4% and non-core inflation eased to 14.0% from 14.7%. The committee raised its 2026 growth projection to 5.0% from 4.9%, kept 2027 at 5.3%, and says it will act further if oil prices or second-round effects require.
Relief on a Timer: Kenya's 8% Fuel Tax Cut Hides a KSh 16 ($0.12) Pump Shock
MPs voted on 14 October to keep VAT on petrol, diesel and kerosene at 8% for 90 more days, the third expiry date the relief has faced since April. Even with the tax cut, Nairobi petrol rose KSh 12.93 to KSh 226.96 ($1.75) a litre this month, after EPRA passed higher import costs through to the pump. On Mwenendo's arithmetic, a return to the standard 16% rate would add roughly KSh 16.81 ($0.13) to every litre of petrol, more than this month's rise. Finance Committee chair Kimani Kuria says the relief cost about KSh 54B ($416.25M) in six months, which is why the Treasury owes Kenyans a published exit plan.
Squeezed Wallets: Share of Kenyans Reporting Higher Income Falls to 30% From 42%, TransUnion Finds
The share of Kenyans reporting higher income fell to 30% in the second quarter of 2026 from 42% a year earlier, a 12 percentage point drop in annual income momentum. Consumers planning to apply for new credit or refinance fell to 57% from 69%, a sign that households are borrowing more cautiously as incomes come under strain. Some 54% of Generation Z respondents said they cannot meet all their financial obligations, up seven percentage points from a year earlier, pointing to acute pressure among younger Kenyan consumers. Those reporting slower income growth cited lower salaries (27%), job losses (24%) and declining business orders (23%), while 53% plan to cut non-essential spending such as entertainment, travel and dining out.
Petrol Costs KSh 12.93 More a Litre in Nairobi From Today as EPRA Lifts Fuel Prices
Nairobi petrol now has a ceiling of KSh 226.96 ($1.75) a litre, up KSh 12.93 from KSh 214.03 ($1.65), for the month to 14 November. Diesel rises KSh 9.90 to KSh 227.76 ($1.75), and kerosene jumps KSh 28.49 to KSh 219.87 ($1.69), the steepest rise of the three. EPRA says September import costs for petrol and diesel climbed by more than 11%, driven by Middle East tensions. The rise comes weeks after annual inflation reached 6.8%, and diesel feeds into the cost of moving food and goods.
Follow the Payslip: Kenya's KSh 205B Housing Levy Pays for Far More Than Homes
Kenya's housing levy has raised more than KSh 205B ($1.59B) since 2023, yet the money sits in a pooled fund and reserves no house for the worker paying it. A worker earning KSh 50,000 a month loses about KSh 525 in take-home pay, not KSh 750, because of a tax change most payslips never explain. Roughly two shillings in every five spent so far went to student housing, slum upgrading and infrastructure rather than the affordable homes in the adverts. Parliament's budget office counts 1,186 projects worth KSh 1.8T ($13.9B), with only about 11% of that cost spent and 176 projects stalled by June. The Court of Appeal upheld the levy in September, which means its future now turns more on Parliament and the 2027 vote than on the courts.
Services Push Prices Up: Ghana Inflation Rises to 5.20% in September
Ghana's annual inflation rose to 5.20% in September from 5.00% in August, the second monthly increase in a row, though still far below last year's rate. Services prices are rising almost twice as fast as goods, at 8.30% against 4.20%, putting rent, utilities and eating out under pressure. The Ashanti Region recorded inflation of 9.80% while the Western Region saw prices fall 0.50%, showing how uneven price pressure is across the country.
Nigeria's Central Bank Slashes Its Key Rate to 23.00% in Biggest Cut Since 2007
The 3.50-point cut ends a pause, with the rate held at 26.50% at the May and July meetings. Inflation has slowed for three months in a row, to 15.39% in August. Whether borrowers feel the cut depends on how quickly banks pass it on.
Trans Nzoia Power Drive: Government Targets 10,939 Homes in KSh 1.09B Connection Projects
Two electricity projects worth a combined KSh 1.09B ($8.43M) aim to bring power to 10,939 households, 2,147 in Cherangany and 8,792 across the wider county. Roads take a far bigger share of the tour's spending, with KSh 18B ($138.86M) going into 270km of Trans Nzoia roads and KSh 7B ($54.00M) into widening Maili Tisa to Kitale Road. No implementing agency, contractor or connection dates were named, so how quickly the households get power, and who pays, is still unanswered.
Africa's Growth Edges Up: World Bank Lifts 2026 Forecast to 4.3% From 4.1%
Growth across sub-Saharan Africa is now forecast at 4.3% for 2026, up from 4.1% six months ago, even as higher energy prices strain supply chains. Income per person is forecast to grow only 1.8% this year, a pace too slow for overall growth to have cut poverty significantly yet. The push is for low-cost artificial intelligence tools in classrooms, livestock care and small-business accounting, while about half of African countries are in default or struggling with debt.
Slower Price Rises: Nigeria's Headline Inflation Eases to 15.39% in August
Nigeria's annual inflation slipped to 15.39% in August from 15.43% in July, below what surveyed analysts had expected. Food prices rose 1.02% on the month, against 5.56% in July, though rural prices accelerated. September figures are due soon and will show whether the slowdown has legs.
Three Numbers, One Economy: IMF Puts Nigeria's 2026 Growth at 4.2%
The IMF's October World Economic Outlook puts Nigeria's 2026 growth at 4.2%, a 0.1 point upgrade on July, and keeps its 2027 projection unchanged at 4.3%. Rival figures of 4.4% and 4.1% quoted in recent reports are also genuine IMF numbers, taken from its January update and its April and July editions this year. Even after the upgrade, the Fund expects Nigeria to grow 0.2 points slower this year than it projected in January, and below the 4.5% sub-Saharan Africa average. An IMF official said Nigerians are suffering, with headline inflation at 15.39% in August and the statistics bureau expected to publish September prices on Thursday.
Appeal Court Lets Kenya Run KSh 208B US Health Deal While Legal Fight Continues
Three Court of Appeal judges ruled on 9 October that public interest favours keeping the KSh 208B ($1.6B) Kenya-US health framework running while the government appeals. The bench cited about 1.4 million Kenyans who rely on HIV, tuberculosis and malaria services it funds, warning that a suspension could cause irreversible harm, including deaths. The deal binds Kenya to raise health budgets by KSh 10B this financial year, climbing to KSh 50B in 2029/30, and to absorb more than 13,000 health workers by 2028. The ruling does not decide whether the agreement is constitutional, leaving data protection and parliamentary oversight objections from Okiya Omtatah and the Katiba Institute unresolved.
December IMF Visit: Kenya Expects Economic Review, Not a New Loan
Kenya's Treasury is reported to expect an IMF Article IV mission in Nairobi in early December, following meetings held during the IMF and World Bank gatherings in Bangkok. An Article IV consultation reviews a country's economic conditions and policy choices; it does not, by itself, approve a loan or commit the IMF to provide new financing. The expected visit is a consultation rather than a new lending arrangement, so borrowers and investors should not treat it as evidence of a new IMF loan.
A Review, Not a Rescue: IMF Article IV Mission Expected in Nairobi in December
An IMF mission is expected in Nairobi in early December for Article IV consultations, the Treasury says. The consultation reviews the economy and does not approve a loan, so Kenya still has no successor programme. Kenya abandoned the ninth review of its KSh 466.9 billion ($3.6 billion) arrangement, which expired in April 2025.
Mining Slump Deepens: South African Output Falls 12.7% in August
South Africa's mining output fell 12.7% in August from a year earlier, far worse than the 3.7% contraction economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. The July figure was revised to a 7.0% fall, showing the slump deepened over a single month. The rand still firmed about 0.2% to 16.5050 per dollar on a weaker dollar and lower oil prices.
Ruto Warns Scrapping Housing Levy Would Cost Jobs as Sifuna Vows to End It
President William Ruto says scrapping the affordable housing levy would put thousands of jobs at risk, answering a vow by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna to abolish it if elected president. Ruto challenged Sifuna's claim about his own payments, saying a KSh 24,000 monthly deduction would imply a salary of KSh 1.8M, a calculation the report does not verify. Neither side's figures on collections, completed homes or jobs have been verified, leaving the economic case still to be tested.
Zambia Eyes Steadier Finances: IMF Staff Agree KSh 190.6B Three-Year Loan Deal
Zambia and IMF staff have agreed a 36-month credit programme, but board approval and agreed prior actions must come before any money is released. The plan would lift the budget surplus before interest payments to 3% of national output by 2029, mainly through new revenue and fewer tax exemptions. Inflation has eased to 6.1% and reserves stand at KSh 789.9B ($6.1B), yet the IMF says 2026 revenue fell short of budget.
A Bigger Buffer: Kenya’s Foreign-Exchange Reserves Rise to KSh 2.9T
Kenya’s gross foreign-exchange reserves reached KSh 2.9T in July 2026, up from KSh 2.7T in June, offering a fresh snapshot of the country’s external cushion. The higher total does not by itself show how comfortably Kenya can cover import bills or other foreign-currency needs, which require separate comparisons over time. Importers, businesses and households watch the shilling and prices of imported goods, but reserve totals are only one indicator alongside exchange rates and external payment obligations.
Pension Cash-Outs After Job Loss Risk Weakening Retirement Savings
Workers leaving a job or business are accessing retirement savings before retirement, putting pressure on money intended to support them later in life. The Kenya retirement benchmark separates partial withdrawals from workers who take all their savings, showing why the categories must not be confused. Early withdrawals can meet urgent costs, but they reduce the money left invested to support future retirement income.
Nigeria and AfDB Review $6.2B Portfolio as Project Delivery Comes Under Focus
Nigeria and the African Development Bank are reviewing a portfolio worth more than KSh 804.45B (US$6.2B) across 55 operations, according to a report citing the bank’s country portfolio figures. The review places project execution, disbursement and delivery risks under scrutiny, but the headline portfolio value represents active operations rather than money newly approved at the meeting. The African Development Bank’s own 2026 Governors’ Digest records a portfolio exceeding KSh 804.45B (US$6.2B), while the specific review details remain attributed to Nairametrics’ reporting.
Nigeria Cuts Policy Rate to 23% as Central Bank Recalibrates Monetary Stance
Nigeria’s Central Bank reduced its Monetary Policy Rate from 26.5% to 23% at its September meeting, while narrowing the standing facilities corridor and leaving bank reserve requirements unchanged. The 350-basis-point cut follows a period of easing inflation, but the policy rate remains high and lenders may adjust customer loan rates at different speeds. The central bank’s decision is confirmed in its official record, while the argument that the move marks a broader easing cycle remains an interpretation rather than a stated commitment.
Kenya Fuel Prices Hold Steady as Global Oil Costs Remain Volatile
Kenya’s maximum pump prices for 15 September to 14 October remained unchanged, with Nairobi petrol capped at KSh 214.03 a litre and diesel at KSh 217.86. Global oil-price shocks can still affect Kenya through import costs, freight, insurance and currency movements, but international volatility does not automatically mean pump prices change every month. The next EPRA review will set the new official ceilings, while actual station prices may be lower than the maximum allowed price.
Nigeria Sets Unified Oil Security Rules as Theft Threatens Production
National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu unveiled a common operating procedure for oil and gas security on 12 October, setting out how agencies should coordinate surveillance, arrests and recovered products. The framework comes as the Navy reports recovering more than 4.7 million litres of petroleum products and dismantling 58 illegal refining sites between April and June 2026. Nigeria’s output improved from the first to the second quarter, but July production eased from June, leaving security enforcement and reliable data important to the country’s export earnings.
Egypt Inflation Eases to 13.9% as Price Pressures Cool
Egypt’s annual urban inflation reportedly slowed to 13.9% in September from 14.5% in August, but the newsroom source has not yet been corroborated against CAPMAS data. The six-tenths-of-a-percentage-point fall would mark the lowest reading since February, although slower inflation means prices are rising more slowly, not that the cost of living is falling. Before treating the figure as confirmed, readers should distinguish the national consumer-price measure from the urban index and check the official release for the underlying monthly changes.
A Road to Cheaper Rice: Kirinyaga Lends Mwea Farmers Machinery to Cut Transport Costs
The county expects the cost of moving one sack of rice to fall from KSh 300 ($2.30) to KSh 100 ($0.77). About 120 km of Mwea scheme roads are meant to be fixed within a month. The county has lent graders, trucks and excavators, but a pledge is not yet a finished road.
A Fragile Upgrade: IMF Lifts 2026 Growth Forecast but Warns Energy and Debt Risks Remain
The IMF now sees global growth of 3.1 per cent this year, a small lift from its last forecast. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow 4.5 per cent through 2027, with fuel and borrowing costs the pressure points. AI spending is propping up trade, which makes a sharp fall in AI valuations a major risk.
Peter Obi Challenges World Bank's Growth Outlook Over Household Hardship
Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2% in the first half of 2026, but the World Bank says faster growth must still create jobs and improve living standards. Peter Obi says stronger revenue and reserves mean little to families unless food, healthcare, education and work become more affordable and accessible in daily life. The World Bank reports that higher state revenues create room for public investment, while warning that spending quality and service delivery will decide whether households benefit. The central question is no longer only whether output is rising, but whether reforms translate into stable prices, productive jobs and better services for ordinary Nigerians. State budgets are central to the outcome: the World Bank says better spending, accountability and service delivery will determine whether higher revenues improve daily life.
KSh59.3B Transport Spending Raises Questions as Rail and BRT Projects Lag
The Kenyan Wall Street reported KSh59.3B in transport department spending while rail and bus rapid transit projects lagged, raising questions about what spending delivered. A separate audit of Nairobi's transport authority found KSh2.5B in payables, most tied to long-delayed payments and a stalled bus rapid transit corridor project. The audit said KSh2.449B had remained unpaid for more than three years, while interest and contractor claims added to the cost of the Thika Road project. For taxpayers and commuters, budget absorption matters less than completed stations, reliable services and clear reporting that connects allocations, payments, physical progress and delivery dates.
The Talent Squeeze: Kenya's PhD Graduates Fall 16.6 Per Cent in One Year
Kenya produced 170 fewer PhD graduates in 2025 than a year earlier. Fewer students are starting doctorates, so the shortfall may deepen in the years ahead. Master's and diploma graduates are rising as students pick faster routes into work.
KRA’s Reported KSh1.44B VAT Ruling Raises Questions About Exempt Services
A report published on 12 October says Kenya’s Tax Appeals Tribunal ordered KRA to refund KSh1.44B in VAT, but Mwenendo has not located the original judgment. Kenya’s VAT Act distinguishes exempt supplies from taxable and zero-rated supplies, making the exact service, tax period and statutory provision central to assessing any dispute. The reported amount cannot be treated as a verified liability or precedent until the ruling, its orders and any appeal status are confirmed through primary records. Businesses facing similar disputes should retain invoices, contracts and tax correspondence, because exemption claims depend on the law that applied and evidence supporting the treatment.
KRA Collects KSh90.05B in September as Import Values Jump 25.6%
Kenya Revenue Authority customs collections reached KSh90.053B in September, beating the Treasury target by KSh965M across several major goods categories during the month. The KSh90.053B haul was 5.8% higher than September 2025, while non-oil customs revenue exceeded its monthly target by KSh1.78B, figures released by KRA show. KRA attributed the gains to a 25.6% rise in import value, a 49.2% increase in bulk cargo, and higher vehicle and container traffic at entry points. The figures show customs revenue outpaced its target, but the data do not establish how much import growth came from higher prices rather than more goods.
Kenyan Court Lets Cook Pursue KSh2.7M Claim Against Dutch Embassy
A Kenyan employment court has allowed former cook Rachael Jambiha Ulira to pursue a KSh2.7M compensation claim against the Netherlands' embassy and its ambassador. The decision rejects a preliminary objection based on diplomatic immunity, but it does not decide whether the cook was unfairly dismissed or whether compensation is owed. Business Daily reports that the court considered her local employment contracts, payslips and social security records when deciding whether the case could proceed under Kenyan law. The dispute will test how Kenyan employment law applies to locally hired staff at foreign missions, with the next court mention scheduled for 16 December 2026.
Dates and Paperwork Decide Tax Fights: Kenyan Firms Win and Lose Against KRA
The Tax Appeals Tribunal ruled that Graphic Lineups must pay KSh 15.73M ($121,000) in VAT on an imported printing press, despite a Treasury undertaking to settle the bill. The High Court overturned KRA's KSh 221.2M ($1.7M) assessment against East African Seed in a 19 June 2026 judgment, finding the company's dated documents outweighed minor anomalies in its records. Treasury data cited by Business Daily put VAT expenditure, the revenue given up through exemptions, at KSh 204.5B ($1.58B) in 2024, down from KSh 242.6B ($1.87B) a year earlier. Mwenendo's reading is that dates and documents carry more weight than assurances, so firms claiming exemptions need records showing when goods arrived and which law applied.
Treasury Weighs New Repayment Terms as Water Sector Debt Tops KSh142B
The National Treasury is considering new repayment terms for water-sector loans after balances owed by 16 institutions rose to KSh142.1B at June 2026, the latest report shows. Athi Water Works Development Agency held KSh61.96B, about 44% of the combined total, while several utilities recorded little or no repayment over the years, Business Daily reported. Treasury has not identified which institutions may be restructured, whether principal or interest could be written off, or the terms any new arrangement would carry. The problem matters beyond government accounts because county water providers need reliable cash flow to maintain pipes, pay suppliers and keep services running for households.
Kenya's Mobile Money Payments Rise as Accounts Grow and Agents Fall
Kenya's mobile-money cash-in and cash-out value rose to KSh761.13B in August, up from KSh728.7B in July, as registered accounts also increased during the month. Central Bank data show agent cash-in and cash-out volume climbed to 227.41 million movements from 221.07 million in July, while the value rose faster. Registered mobile-money accounts reached 95.31 million, but active agents fell to 563,605, showing that account growth did not coincide with a larger agent network. The monthly figures measure agent cash movements, not every digital payment, and they do not establish which users or transaction types drove the increase.
North America Slips: Kenya's August Remittances Rise as Europe and Other Regions Gain
Kenya received about KSh58.6B (US$451.85M) in diaspora transfers in August, 6% more than a year earlier, according to the Central Bank's monthly data series. The 12-month total still fell 1.3% to KSh650.4B (US$5.013B), down from KSh659.0B (US$5.079B), using the same October exchange rate for comparison between the two periods. North American transfers dropped about 12% year on year, while Europe rose 24% and the rest of the world gained 42%, according to CBK source-market figures. The regional split explains how the monthly total could rise while annual inflows declined, but the data do not identify why each corridor moved differently.
CBK Reserves Ease to KSh1.915T, Still Cover 5.9 Months of Imports
Kenya’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to KSh1.915T ($14.736B) on 8 October, down from KSh1.940T ($14.930B) a week earlier, the Central Bank of Kenya reported in its latest bulletin. The stock still covered 5.9 months of imports, above the central bank’s statutory minimum of four months and providing a buffer against external payment shocks. The shilling traded at KSh129.94 to the US dollar on 8 October, compared with KSh129.71 on 1 October, according to the same weekly bulletin.
Credit Growth Picks Up: Private Sector Lending Rises to 10.6 Per Cent
Commercial banks’ lending to the private sector grew 10.6 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, up from 10.3 per cent in August, according to the Central Bank of Kenya. Average commercial banks’ lending rates stood at 14.4 per cent in September, compared with 14.3 per cent in August and 17.2 per cent in November 2024. Growth remained strong in trade, building and construction, agriculture, finance and insurance, and consumer durables, reflecting improved demand for credit.
Rwanda's Producer Prices Rise 21.1 Per Cent in a Year, With Exports Rising Fastest
Rwanda's Producer Price Index, which tracks what producers receive for local and export goods, rose 21.1 per cent in the year to August 2026, up from 20.8 per cent in July. Export producer prices climbed 25.1 per cent year on year, well above the 18.9 per cent rise in prices of locally sold products, according to Rwanda's statistics office. Despite the high annual rate, the overall index fell 0.2 per cent from July to August, a reminder that yearly and monthly figures can point in different directions.
Tanzania's Inflation Holds at 4.3% as Food Price Growth Edges Higher
Tanzania's annual consumer inflation remained at 4.3% in September 2026, unchanged from August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose to 3.9% from 3.7%, while inflation excluding those items stayed at 4.6%. The unchanged headline rate does not mean prices stopped rising, and households with different spending patterns may experience different pressure on their budgets.
Kenyan Banks' Average Lending Rate Stood at 14.34% in August
The Central Bank of Kenya's August figures put the average lending rate at 14.34%, while the average deposit rate stood at 6.91% and the savings rate at 3.54%. The three measures describe different sides of banking, and none guarantees the rate an individual borrower or saver will receive from a specific institution. The published panel supplied for this assignment does not provide a previous-month comparison, so the figures cannot establish whether average borrowing costs rose or fell in August.
Kenya Mobile Money Transactions Rise to KSh 728.7 Billion
Kenya’s mobile money transaction value rose to KSh 728.7 billion in July from KSh 682.5 billion in June, according to the national statistics agency. The number of transactions increased to 221.1 million from 212.5 million, while reported mobile money accounts edged up to 94.4 million from 94.2 million. Account totals are not a count of unique active users, and the published figures do not identify which payment types drove the monthly increase.
South Africa’s Factory Price Inflation Eases to 5.0% in August
South Africa’s annual producer price inflation eased to 5.0% in August from 5.7% in July, while the index fell 0.4% month on month. Producer prices track prices received by manufacturers, not the prices households pay in shops, so slower factory-gate inflation does not guarantee cheaper goods. Businesses will need detailed product data and supplier quotations to establish whether the national trend is easing costs for the materials and goods they buy.
UNCTAD Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 2.6% as Energy Costs Rise
UN Trade and Development expects global growth to slow to 2.6% in 2026 from 2.9% in 2025. Higher energy costs and weaker external demand pose risks for African importers, businesses and households.
Nigeria’s Diesel Prices Rise 82.7% as Global Fuel Shock Bites
Nigeria recorded the steepest diesel price rise in UNCTAD’s comparison between February and August 2026. The figures show how global energy disruption has fed into domestic fuel costs, even as local refining and a short petrol discount offer partial relief.
Kenya’s KSh 662B Digital Economy Forecast Faces Internet and Trade Barriers
Kenya wants more small firms to trade across borders online, but connectivity, finance and delivery costs remain obstacles. The KSh 662 billion GDP figure is a 2024 forecast for 2028, not a confirmed result or new funding pledge.
Trump Announces Russian Diesel Supply Deal as US Eases Sanctions
Donald Trump says Russia will supply diesel to US and global markets, while the US Treasury has authorised specified transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through 7 April 2027. Payment arrangements, buyers and delivery details remain unclear, and the price impact is not yet established.
The First Receipt: The Pump Pays Before Anyone Else When Oil Jumps
A dearer barrel hits the pump first, then the matatu, then the price of unga and a factory input. Kenya used 8.41 per cent more petroleum in the year to June. The levy sits on every litre. The Central Bank has already named Middle East oil as the risk it is watching. A Lamu refinery does not repeal the world price if the crude is imported.