US Midterms Put Trump’s Tax and Immigration Agenda Under Fresh ScrutinyUS Midterms Put Trump’s Tax and Immigration Agenda Under Fresh Scrutiny

But the election will not give Congress direct control of every policy. The President and executive agencies retain authority over many immigration and visa decisions, while tax changes and major spending measures generally require legislation. That distinction matters to African students, skilled workers, families and businesses trying to understand what a change in Washington could mean for them.

The immediate question is whether the next Congress will cooperate with the White House, challenge its priorities or force difficult negotiations over taxes, spending and immigration.

Tax policy will depend on votes in Congress

The US tax system is shaped by federal laws passed by Congress. Changes to income tax rates, business taxes, tax credits and deductions generally require legislation, which must pass both the House of Representatives and the Senate before it can be signed by the President.

A Congress controlled by the same party as the White House may find it easier to advance tax proposals, although narrow majorities and disagreements within a party can still block bills. If Democrats take one or both chambers, they could seek to revise tax provisions, challenge new proposals and use committee hearings to examine the effects of existing laws.

Budget decisions also matter to markets

The outcome could also affect federal spending and the deficit. Tax cuts reduce government revenue unless offset by other measures, while spending commitments require money to be approved through the budget and appropriations process. The next Congress will face negotiations over government funding and the debt ceiling in 2027, issues that can affect financial markets even when no major tax law changes.

For businesses and investors, the important point is that election-night results do not change tax bills automatically. The practical impact will depend on which proposals are introduced, whether they can pass both chambers and whether the President signs them.

Tariffs are part of the tax debate, but not the same as income tax

Import tariffs are duties charged on goods entering the United States. Importers pay them at the border and may pass some of the cost to customers or businesses further along the supply chain. That can affect consumer prices, manufacturing costs and the competitiveness of companies that rely on imported materials.

Congress has delegated some tariff powers to the President

Congress has constitutional authority to impose tariffs and regulate foreign trade, but it has delegated parts of that power to the President under several laws. The Congressional Research Service explains that some of these laws allow the executive branch to change tariffs after investigations or when specific conditions are met.

The legal position changed in February 2026, when the US Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. The ruling invalidated tariffs imposed under that law, but it did not remove other tariff powers available under separate statutes.

A Democratic-controlled chamber could pursue hearings and legislation to limit the President's use of those other powers. Reuters reported that Democrats could use a congressional majority to shift the trade debate and push symbolic votes to roll back tariffs, but a President's veto and the legal authorities already delegated to the executive would make a broad reversal difficult.

That means businesses in Africa should not assume a change in Congress will immediately remove US import duties. They will need to follow the legal basis for each tariff, the products covered and any country-specific exemptions.

Immigration policy has a different balance of power

Immigration is where the distinction between Congress and the White House becomes especially important. Congress writes immigration law and controls funding, but the executive branch administers visa applications, border enforcement and many decisions on entry into the country.

The US State Department says a presidential proclamation that took effect on 1 January 2026 fully or partially suspended entry and visa issuance for nationals of 39 countries. The restrictions are not identical: some nationalities face broad suspensions, while others face limits affecting specified categories, including visitor, student and exchange visas.

The restrictions differ by nationality and visa type

The State Department's published list includes several African countries. Full visa suspensions apply to nationals of Burkina Faso, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Libya, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan, among others.

Partial suspensions apply to nationals of Angola, Benin, Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo and Zambia, among others. The exact restrictions and exceptions depend on nationality and visa category.

Kenya is not among the countries named in that January proclamation. That does not mean every Kenyan applicant is exempt from ordinary visa requirements or additional screening. It means the country-specific suspension described in that notice should not be presented as applying to Kenyan nationals.

Screening changes add another layer for applicants

The State Department also announced expanded online-presence screening from 1 October 2026 for additional visa categories. The department said this review already applied to several groups, including student, exchange visitor and temporary worker applicants. Applicants in the newly added categories were instructed to make their social media profiles public or open for the screening process.

For African students and professionals, these measures can affect preparation, documentation and uncertainty around applications. They are also relevant to universities, employers and families that rely on international education and skilled migration.

What could a new Congress change?

A Democratic majority in the House could increase scrutiny of immigration enforcement, visa processing, agency practices and the use of federal funds. It could hold hearings, request documents and pass bills setting out a different approach. A Senate majority could also influence committee oversight and the confirmation of senior officials.

However, Congress cannot simply instruct consular officers to approve individual visa applications. Nor would a change in congressional control automatically cancel a presidential proclamation. Reversing an executive policy may require a new presidential decision, legislation that can survive a veto, or a successful legal challenge.

If Republicans retain both chambers, the administration would have more political support in Congress for its legislative priorities and could face less sustained oversight. If control is divided, immigration funding and oversight could become subjects of negotiation, while the executive branch continues to administer existing rules.

Tax policy could be affected more directly because Congress must pass most major changes to federal taxes and spending. Even then, the result will depend on the size of party majorities, internal disagreements and the ability to secure votes in both chambers.

What African households and businesses should watch

For African students, the immediate priority is to check the visa rules that apply to their nationality and course of study, rather than relying on broad claims about a general ban. The State Department maintains separate guidance for student visas and country-specific restrictions.

For skilled workers, employers and universities, the questions include whether screening procedures change, whether visa processing becomes more demanding and whether Congress seeks to alter funding or reporting requirements. For families, changes to entry and immigration rules can affect travel plans and reunification, but the effect depends on the legal route involved.

African businesses should watch the tax and tariff debate for a different reason. Changes to US taxes can influence investment decisions and consumer demand, while import duties can affect the price of goods and the cost of supplying US customers. The impact on African firms will vary by product, country and supply chain.

The midterms will change the political balance in Washington, not the entire structure of US government. The new Congress can legislate, investigate, approve spending and scrutinise the administration. The President will still control many executive decisions. For Africans with interests in the US, that division of power is the most useful guide to what may change and what may not.

Sources: US State Department on visa suspensions effective January 2026; US State Department on expanded visa screening; US State Department student visa guidance; Congressional Research Service on tariff authority; Congressional Research Service on the Supreme Court's IEEPA tariff ruling; Reuters on possible election effects on trade policy; Reuters on possible congressional outcomes.

Related reading: US Midterms Put Congress and Trump’s Remaining Agenda to the Test