Turkana oil: Ruto targets December for Kenya's first crude sales, but no buyer is namedTurkana oil: Ruto targets December for Kenya's first crude sales, but no buyer is named
Key Highlights
- Kenya's president has set December as the start of crude oil exports from Turkana, more than a decade after the discovery.
- Initial output is targeted at about 20,000 barrels a day, a small fraction of the planned Lamu refinery's capacity.
- No buyer, export price or first-cargo date has been announced, and the waxy crude needs heated handling on its way to the coast.
President William Ruto has told Kenyans that crude oil exports from the Lake Turkana Basin are due to begin in December, the clearest timeline yet for a project that has waited more than 14 years for its first commercial sale.
The target matters because Kenya has promised Turkana oil before, and each delay has pushed back the revenue, jobs and local royalties that the discovery was meant to deliver. Speaking at the Mashujaa Day celebrations in Eldoret on 20 October, Ruto said work in the basin was "progressing rapidly, with oil exports targeted to begin in December", according to the text of his address.
What has and has not been announced
Initial production is targeted at about 20,000 barrels a day. That is small beside the up to 700,000 barrels a day planned for the proposed Lamu refinery, so Turkana crude alone cannot feed it.
No buyer, export price or confirmed date for the first cargo has been given. Reports of the speech also mention a 1 December production target, which the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum has not yet confirmed in a published statement that Mwenendo could verify.
The handling problem
Turkana crude is waxy and can solidify at temperatures below 40°C, so it must be heated in storage and transport. A long pipeline to the coast would be costly, and trucking to Mombasa is the route used in the 2019 Early Oil Pilot Scheme, which was never built for sustained large-scale exports.
That pilot did earn money. Figures disclosed by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum showed that 414,777 barrels sold to Glencore Singapore and ChemChina UK brought in KSh 3.65B ($28.34M) across deals closed between 2019 and 2022.
Who is involved
Tullow Oil and Africa Oil struck oil at the Ngamia-1 well in the South Lokichar Basin in March 2012. Gulf Energy has since taken over the assets previously held by Tullow, and the Field Development Plan has been approved.
Turkana County has opened revenue-sharing talks with Gulf Energy. In September the county said it planned to compensate about 3,600 project-affected people, with KSh 200M ($1.54M) set aside for the first phase.
What it means for Kenyans
Exporting crude will not by itself lower pump prices, because Kenya imports refined fuel and the crude would be sold abroad. The gains would come through export earnings, county and community revenue and any new work around the oilfields.
Investment in the wider energy chain is also moving. As Mwenendo earlier reported, Kenya Pipeline lifted profit to KSh 11.6B as it weighed a petroleum trading hub, after private investors acquired a 25% stake in the company.
The questions still open
Until a buyer, a price and a loading date are published, December remains a political target, not a contract. Readers should watch for a Ministry of Energy and Petroleum statement and for the first tanker movements out of Turkana.
In Summary
- Who announced the timeline?
- President William Ruto, at the Mashujaa Day celebrations in Eldoret.
- What was announced?
- Crude oil exports from the Lake Turkana Basin are targeted to begin in December.
- When is the first sale due?
- December 2026; no first-cargo date has been published.
- Where is the oil produced?
- The South Lokichar Basin in Turkana County, northern Kenya.
- Why does it matter?
- It would be Kenya's first sustained crude export after the 2012 discovery, bringing export earnings and county revenue.
- How would the crude move?
- Initial output of about 20,000 barrels a day would need heated handling, with trucking to Mombasa used in the 2019 pilot.
