No Start Date: Kenya's Next IMF Programme Stays Undated as Debt Set to Rise KSh 1.35TNo Start Date: Kenya's Next IMF Programme Stays Undated as Debt Set to Rise KSh 1.35T

The admission moves the talks from "pending" to "no timetable". It matters because the money Kenya cannot yet draw from the Fund must be found elsewhere, and each source carries its own conditions.

What the governor said

Thugge told Bloomberg that the government does not know when the next programme will begin. He said the start depends on whether Kenya and the IMF agree on the structure and priorities of the arrangement. "We have to see their thinking, our thinking, and what the programme would look like," he said.

Kenya's previous arrangement, worth KSh 467B ($3.6B), ended in April 2025 after the government abandoned the ninth review. Nairobi asked for a successor programme in March 2025. Talks continued during IMF missions in September and October 2025 and in February and March 2026, without an agreement.

The Treasury expects an IMF mission in Nairobi in early December 2026. That is an Article IV consultation, which reviews economic performance and policies and does not by itself approve a loan. The Central Bank of Kenya publishes the governor's public statements and the monetary policy record.

Debt projections

Treasury projections put the rise in public debt at about KSh 1.15T ($8.83B), or 5.5% of GDP, in 2026/27. In 2027/28 the increase is projected at KSh 1.35T ($10.43B), or about 5.9% of GDP.

Those figures are projections and could change if financing terms or the budget change.

Other lenders step in

Kenya is also seeking an additional KSh 127B ($0.98B) from the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB). The package consists of about KSh 94B ($0.72B) from the World Bank and about KSh 34B ($0.26B) from the AfDB. The components sum to roughly KSh 128B, slightly above the stated total, so the final split may still be adjusted.

Raphael Owino, the Treasury's Director General for Public Debt Management, said the World Bank money would come through a Development Policy Operation. Discussions currently centre on the reforms required to secure it.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, Principal Secretary Chris Kiptoo and Thugge were in Bangkok for the Annual Meetings of the Fund and the World Bank. On 13 October they held bilateral talks there with Ndiamé Diop, the World Bank's Regional Vice President for Eastern and Southern Africa.

Reform conditions replace Fund conditions

A Development Policy Operation is budget support tied to policy reforms, so it can shape tax and spending choices much as a Fund programme does. What is not yet known is how demanding the reform conditions will be and when the money would arrive.

As Mwenendo earlier reported, the CBK held its rate at 8.75% while inflation ticked up, which leaves the bank little room to offset heavier borrowing.

For households and businesses, the practical stake is borrowing cost and tax policy. Mwenendo also examined the fuel tax relief, whose cost to the Treasury shows how tight the fiscal path already is. Without a programme, Kenya leans more on commercial and multilateral borrowing, and the debt path above is the one the Treasury is planning around.