Milk Supply Drops 11%: Kenya Dairy Deliveries Fall to 75M Litres as Rains Offer ReliefMilk Supply Drops 11%: Kenya Dairy Deliveries Fall to 75M Litres as Rains Offer Relief
Key Highlights
- Milk delivered to Kenyan processors fell to 75M litres in August from 84.4M litres in June, according to Kenya Dairy Board figures, a drop of about 11% over two months.
- Fresh packeted milk prices rose 6% in September, while white wheat flour rose 4.5%, showing a dry season and import costs pushing up the price of everyday staples.
- Forecasters expect above-average rain through November, which could restore milk supply first, while bread and cooking oil stay tied to imported wheat and palm oil.
Kenya's milk supply has shrunk by about 11% in two months, with deliveries to processors falling to 75M litres in August from 84.4M litres in June.
The drop matters at the till. Fresh packeted milk prices rose 6% in September, and milk sits seventh in the inflation basket, with loose milk ninth. When milk supply falls, it shows up quickly in household budgets.
The delivery figures come from the Kenya Dairy Board and the price rise from the KNBS consumer price index.
A dry season hits the farm gate
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority reported below-average rainfall from June to August, cutting pasture just as feed costs climbed. Farmers and traders in the North Rift say animal feed prices have risen by about a third.
The squeeze is sharp at the cooperative level. One Nandi County dairy cooperative saw daily deliveries fall from about 10,000 litres to fewer than 2,000.
The Kenya Dairy Board puts the cost of producing a litre at KSh 24.50 ($0.19) under open grazing and KSh 39.50 ($0.30) with indoor feeding. Farmers forced to feed cattle indoors in a dry spell face costs about 61% higher per litre, which helps explain why prices rise when the rains fail. Mwenendo has previously examined how feed costs and low yields keep Kenyan milk expensive.
Milk can recover, bread and oil may not
A county director at the meteorological service expects above-average rainfall through November. Better pasture should lift deliveries and ease milk prices first.
Bread and cooking oil depend on imports, so local rain does little for them. White wheat flour prices rose 4.5% in September. Kenya imported 2.24 million tonnes of wheat in 2025 and grew only about 255,000 tonnes, according to the KNBS Economic Survey 2026. More than 90% of edible oil is imported, according to the Agriculture and Food Authority, and the Central Bank of Kenya says international palm oil prices have risen for four months in a row.
David Precious, senior market analyst at EBC Financial Group, said: "Shoppers may see milk ease first while bread and cooking oil hold."
The wider inflation picture
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy items, rose to 4% in September from 3.4% in August, as Mwenendo reported when the Central Bank held its rate at 8.75%.
Dairy is a big part of the economy, accounting for 4.5% of GDP and supporting about 1.8 million smallholder households, according to government figures. Kenyans drink about 110 litres of milk each a year, the highest rate in sub-Saharan Africa according to the Kenya Dairy Board. A good short rains season would help both farmers' incomes and shoppers' bills.
In Summary
- What happened to milk supply?
- Deliveries to processors fell to 75M litres in August from 84.4M litres in June, according to the Kenya Dairy Board.
- Why did supply fall?
- Below-average rain from June to August cut pasture, and North Rift farmers report animal feed prices up by about a third.
- How much more are shoppers paying?
- Fresh packeted milk prices rose 6% and white wheat flour 4.5% in September, according to the KNBS consumer price index.
- When could milk prices ease?
- Forecasters expect above-average rainfall through November, which should lift pasture and milk output.
- Who is most exposed?
- About 1.8 million smallholder dairy households and consumers, since dairy accounts for 4.5% of GDP and Kenyans drink about 110 litres of milk each a year.
