Kenya’s KSh 662B Digital Economy Forecast Faces Internet and Trade Barriers

Kenya is seeking a bigger share of global digital trade, but businesses will need better connectivity, logistics, financing and clearer rules to compete across borders. Investment, Trade and Industry Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui made the case at a digital-trade workshop in Nairobi on 6 October, as reported by The Star.

The event, convened by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and its partners, focused on digital trade and trade finance.

The KSh 662 billion figure often attached to Kenya’s digital economy is a forecast, not money already generated or a new funding pledge. In November 2024, the Communications Authority of Kenya said a GSMA report projected that the digital economy would contribute KSh 662 billion to gross domestic product by 2028.

The same report forecast 300,000 additional jobs and KSh 150 billion in higher tax revenue. Those figures remain projections; they should not be read as confirmed results.

Small firms need more than online payments

Digital trade includes selling products or services online and using digital systems to manage orders, payments, customs paperwork and supply chains. For a Kenyan small business, it can mean finding customers outside its home county or selling to buyers in another African country without relying only on a physical shop.

Kinyanjui said Kenya must make it easier for micro, small and medium-sized businesses to participate in regional and international markets. He identified infrastructure, logistics, access to finance and regulation as barriers.

The government has pointed to the Kenya National E-Commerce Strategy, launched in 2023, and regional initiatives under the East African Community and the African Continental Free Trade Area as frameworks for expanding digital commerce, The Star reported.

Internet access remains part of the challenge. In its 2024 summary of the GSMA report, the Communications Authority said 99 per cent of the population was covered by 3G networks and 98 per cent by 4G, but only 33.5 per cent used mobile internet at that time. These are dated figures, not a current measure, but they illustrate the difference between a network reaching an area and people actually using it.

Finance, trust and delivery still matter

A digital storefront cannot solve every business problem. Firms also need affordable devices and data, digital skills, reliable payment systems, protection against fraud, access to working capital and a way to deliver goods on time. Cross-border sales can stall if customs documents are slow, transport is expensive or rules differ between markets.

Digital payment records may help small businesses demonstrate sales and cash flow when seeking credit. That benefit depends on lenders being able to assess the records fairly and on businesses understanding how their data is collected and used. Kinyanjui also called for stronger cybersecurity, consumer protection and data-privacy safeguards, according to The Star.

The opportunity matters because smaller firms often have less money to spend on export paperwork, marketing and technology than large companies. If digital systems reduce those costs, more businesses could reach new customers. If connectivity, financing and delivery remain expensive, the gains may concentrate among firms already equipped to trade online.

Implementation will decide the outcome

The workshop was designed to identify practical steps for paperless trade, digital documentation, trade finance and wider small-business participation. The available reports do not confirm a new funding package or binding implementation deadline announced at the event. The test for Kenya will be whether discussions translate into lower costs, usable digital systems and more small firms completing cross-border sales.

Mwenendo has previously examined how international businesses are using Kenya’s digital economy in its coverage of Uber’s regional strategy.

In Summary: The test is delivery

Kenya wants more businesses to earn from cross-border digital trade, but the KSh 662 billion figure is a 2024 forecast for 2028, not a confirmed result. Better internet use, finance, logistics, skills and consumer protection will shape whether small firms can benefit. The next step is to turn policy discussions into practical changes, with measurable results and clear timelines.