Kenya Weighs 500MW From Dangote's Lamu Refinery: Petcoke Power Tests Green Energy PledgeKenya Weighs 500MW From Dangote's Lamu Refinery: Petcoke Power Tests Green Energy Pledge

Dangote, president and chief executive of Dangote Group, says the plant will generate about 1,000MW, half of it for Kenya. No agreement has been signed, so the offer remains a proposal. It matters because Kenya's peak electricity demand is rising faster than new supply, and the buyer would be taking power from a carbon-intensive refinery by-product.

A stopgap, not a policy change

Ronoh Kibet, acting managing director and chief executive of KenGen, described petcoke power as a transitional measure and said the goal remains 100% green electricity. "We need all the help we can get" to keep powering the country, he said.

Kibet explained that KenGen had planned to commission a power plant every year, but a moratorium on new power purchase agreements stopped signed deals from reaching financing. The government imposed the moratorium in 2021 to lower electricity costs, and it also stalled new generation projects. Kibet says it has since been lifted, though no date was given, and KenGen is now playing catch-up.

Demand is outrunning supply

Peak electricity demand rose from 2,241MW in September 2024 to 2,549MW in July 2026, an increase of more than 300MW. Some older plants have been retired in the meantime, widening the gap. Kenya also imports electricity from Ethiopia and Uganda, while geothermal, hydro, wind and solar supply most of its generation.

A 500MW supply from Lamu would equal almost one-fifth of the current peak demand, which shows how large the proposal is relative to the grid. The article reporting the plan does not state the refinery's timeline, cost or contract terms, so the price per unit and the length of any power purchase agreement are unknown.

What the Lamu project already faces

Mwenendo earlier reported on how Lamu families took the refinery land dispute to court, challenging the planned KSh 2T ($15.4B) project over compensation for land. Any power deal would depend on that project advancing.

The proposal also lands as oil markets tighten. As Mwenendo earlier reported, oil stocks have fallen to decade lows, which raises the cost of imported fuel and strengthens the case for domestic supply of all kinds.

For households and businesses, the immediate effect is none: nothing has been agreed. The test will be whether the government can accept carbon-heavy power for a few years without weakening its renewable commitments, and at what tariff.