Kakuzi Cuts Earnings Outlook Further as Macadamia Market WeakensKakuzi Cuts Earnings Outlook Further as Macadamia Market Weakens
Key Highlights
- Kakuzi has issued a sharper warning for its 2026 results, pointing to continued weakness in the macadamia market and a smaller crop.
- The listed grower had warned in August that annual earnings could fall by at least 25%, but its latest review signals a deeper setback.
- The company has not quantified the revised expected decline, leaving investors waiting for more detail on prices, crop volumes and the year-end outlook.
Kakuzi has warned that its net earnings for the year ending December 2026 will be significantly below last year's result, citing a continued downturn in the macadamia market and a lower crop. The updated notice was issued by the board on 21 October and distributed through the Regulatory News Service on 22 October.
The announcement marks a more severe outlook than the company's warning in August, when it said earnings might be at least 25% lower than in 2025. The latest statement does not give a revised percentage or an estimated profit figure.
What changed in the forecast
In its updated notice, Kakuzi said the board's latest review pointed to earnings being significantly below the previous year. It attributed the outlook to two factors: a continued downturn in the international macadamia market and a lower macadamia crop.
The August warning had also cited exceptionally dry conditions on the farm at the end of 2025 and the effect of the Middle East conflict on the international macadamia market. The new notice does not quantify the contribution of each factor or say how much prices and crop volumes have changed since the earlier forecast.
Kakuzi is a listed Kenyan agricultural company with interests that include avocados, macadamia, tea, livestock and forestry. Its results therefore matter to investors as well as workers, suppliers and service businesses linked to commercial farming and export agriculture.
Why the warning matters
A weaker macadamia market can reduce the price growers receive for their crop, while a smaller harvest limits the volume available to sell. When both pressures occur together, revenue can fall even before other farm and operating costs are considered.
For investors, a profit warning is a signal that the company's expected financial performance has deteriorated. It is not, by itself, a final result. Kakuzi has not published a new earnings estimate in the updated notice, so the scale of the likely decline remains unclear.
The company's updated profit warning is the latest statement on its outlook. Readers can also see how export infrastructure features in Kenya's wider business economy in Mwenendo's report on the sale of a cargo company handling a third of JKIA export cargo.
What investors should watch
The next useful update will be a quantified forecast or the company's full-year results. Investors will want to see whether Kakuzi provides figures for expected crop volumes, selling prices and the financial effect of the macadamia downturn.
The company has not said in this notice when it will provide those details. Until it does, the wording “significantly below” should be treated as the board's current outlook, not as a precise estimate of the final earnings decline.
The wider lesson for export agriculture is that harvest volumes and international prices can move earnings in opposite directions at the same time. Kakuzi's next results should show how much each factor has affected its business and whether other activities, including avocado production, can offset part of the pressure.
In Summary
- Which company issued the warning?
- Kakuzi Plc, a listed Kenyan agricultural company.
- What has changed?
- The board now expects 2026 net earnings to be significantly below the previous year, citing a weaker macadamia market and a lower crop.
- When was the update issued?
- The board dated the notice 21 October 2026; it was distributed through RNS on 22 October.
- Has Kakuzi quantified the expected fall?
- No. The updated notice does not give a revised percentage or estimated profit figure.