Fourth Straight Fall: Nigeria's Inflation Slows to 14.63% in September as Food Prices DropFourth Straight Fall: Nigeria's Inflation Slows to 14.63% in September as Food Prices Drop
Key Highlights
- Nigeria's year-on-year headline inflation slowed to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, the fourth consecutive monthly decline and below the 15.5% rise analysts had forecast.
- Food prices fell 1.55% on the month in September after rising 1.02% in August, while annual food inflation stood at 19.59%, still close to 20% for households buying staples.
- Core inflation eased to 12.95% year on year from 13.29% in August, but its monthly rate rose to 1.11% from minus 0.06%, a sign underlying price pressure has not vanished.
Nigeria's headline inflation slowed to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, defying a market forecast of a small rise.
The reading matters for savers, importers and the Central Bank of Nigeria, which weighs price trends in setting borrowing costs. According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published on 15 October 2026, the month-on-month rate eased to 0.06% from 0.71% in August.
Food prices fall on the month
Food was the main drag on prices in September. Food inflation fell 1.55% month on month, against a 1.02% rise in August. Prices of grains, rice, eggs, onions, palm oil, vegetables, potatoes, plantain and tomatoes drove the monthly movement.
Annual food inflation stood at 19.59%, compared with 19.57% in August as reported at the time, so the year-on-year pressure on household staples is little changed even as monthly prices cooled.
Analysts had expected headline inflation to rise to about 15.5% in September. That figure was a forecast from secondary outlets, and the NBS print came in 0.87 percentage points below it.
Urban and rural gap
Urban inflation was 15.64% year on year, while rural inflation was 12.46%. The urban monthly rate rose to 0.53% from 0.28% in August, whereas the rural monthly rate fell 0.89% after a 1.79% rise a month earlier.
The split suggests city households, which depend more on purchased food and services, are feeling less relief than rural ones.
Core prices still rising
Core inflation, which excludes some volatile items, eased to 12.95% year on year from 13.29% in August. Its monthly rate, however, rose to 1.11% from minus 0.06%.
That rebound is the figure to watch. It indicates that prices outside the food basket picked up in September, even as headline inflation fell.
Mwenendo has followed how fuel and import costs feed through to prices across the region. As Mwenendo earlier reported, Kenya's petrol price cap rose this month, and Mwenendo earlier reported on how the pump pays first when oil jumps, a reminder that energy costs remain a risk to disinflation.
What it means for readers
For Nigerian households, a lower headline rate does not yet mean cheaper food, because annual food inflation is close to 20%. For investors, four straight declines strengthen the case for easier monetary policy, but the rise in monthly core inflation gives the central bank a reason to move carefully.
In Summary
- Who published the figures?
- Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics, as reported on 15 October 2026.
- What was the headline rate?
- Year-on-year headline inflation was 14.63% in September, down from 15.39% in August.
- Which period does it cover?
- September 2026, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
- Where was the gap widest?
- Urban inflation was 15.64% year on year against 12.46% in rural areas.
- Why did prices ease?
- Food prices fell 1.55% month on month, led by grains, rice, eggs, onions, palm oil, vegetables, potatoes, plantain and tomatoes.
- How did it compare with forecasts?
- Analysts had expected about 15.5%; the print was 0.87 percentage points lower.