Dangote Refinery Swings to KSh 613.48B Profit: Unaudited Nine-Month Results Land Before IPO CloseDangote Refinery Swings to KSh 613.48B Profit: Unaudited Nine-Month Results Land Before IPO Close

The swing lands as the refinery's share offer, which Reuters says is targeting $1.6B (KSh 207.52B), stays open until 27 October. For Kenyan investors weighing the offer, the numbers raise the question of how much of the turnaround is lasting and how much is a strong refining margin that could narrow.

What the unaudited figures show

According to Reuters, as carried by CNBC Africa revenue for January to September rose to KSh 2.92T ($22.48B) from KSh 1.19T ($9.19B). Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation reached KSh 715.94B ($5.52B), up from KSh 81.40B ($627.6M).

Operating cash flow came in at KSh 477.30B ($3.68B), compared with KSh 47.30B ($364.7M) a year earlier. Cash at the end of September stood at KSh 867.69B ($6.69B).

The refinery moved from net debt of KSh 224.38B ($1.73B) to a net cash position of KSh 84.41B ($650.8M). The report credits higher crude processing rates, stronger refining margins and improved operations for the change. The plant is built to process 700,000 barrels a day.

Why the unaudited label matters

These are management figures, not audited accounts, and the report does not say whether an auditor has reviewed them. Investors should treat the profit and cash numbers as indicative until the audited statements appear in the offer documents.

Margins are also a variable. A refinery's profit depends heavily on the gap between crude costs and fuel prices, and the report ties the gain partly to stronger margins, which can reverse.

What Kenyan applicants should watch

The share offer has confused many Kenyans over deadlines. As Mwenendo earlier reported, Kenyan investors face conflicting closing dates between the Capital Markets Authority notice of 13 October and the wider extension to 27 October. Applicants should confirm the date that applies to them with their licensed selling agent.

Mwenendo also explained earlier why most Kenyans cannot buy the shares directly, because orders must pass through named firms. The offer is for the Nigerian refinery, not for the planned Lamu plant.

That distinction matters because the Lamu project remains in dispute. In its report that a Malindi court let an order lapse, Mwenendo noted that the farmers' land claim has not been heard on its merits and returns to court on 24 November.

The report quotes no Dangote executive and gives no share price, so the valuation behind the offer cannot be checked from these results alone. Amounts converted at about KSh 129.70 to the dollar.