Brent Hits KSh 14,270.81 ($109.86): Crude Reaches Its Highest Since May on Gulf Supply FearsBrent Hits KSh 14,270.81 ($109.86): Crude Reaches Its Highest Since May on Gulf Supply Fears
Key Highlights
- Brent crude settled at KSh 14,270.81 ($109.86) a barrel on 16 October, up 3.72% on the day and 4.91% on the week, touching its highest level since May.
- A Saudi-led coalition intercepted a missile aimed at the Yanbu export port, while Ukrainian strikes shut a primary crude unit at Russia's Ryazan refinery, adding to supply worries.
- Kenya's pump price ceilings hold until 14 November, so this month's crude strength will be tested at the next EPRA review, which looks at import costs over the full pricing month.
Brent crude settled at KSh 14,270.81 ($109.86) a barrel on Friday 16 October, its highest close since May, as fresh attacks in the Middle East and strikes on Russian refineries tightened an already thin supply picture.
The rise matters in Nairobi because pump price ceilings are fixed only until 14 November, so October's crude strength will reach motorists at the next review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA). Whether it does depends on import costs for the pricing month, which EPRA has yet to publish.
What moved the market
The December Brent contract rose KSh 511.81 ($3.94), or 3.72%, from Thursday's settlement of KSh 13,759.01 ($105.92). It briefly touched KSh 14,289 ($110) during the session and finished the week up KSh 667.69 ($5.14), or 4.91%, from KSh 13,603.13 ($104.72) a week earlier.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November settled at KSh 13,173.16 ($101.41), up 3.51% on the day and 10.41% on the week. The gap between the two benchmarks narrowed to about KSh 1,097.66 ($8.45), from KSh 1,671.81 ($12.87) a week earlier.
A Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu, the Red Sea export port, with no damage reported in initial accounts. Analysts at Kpler warned on Thursday that escalating Iranian attacks on shipping had sharply reduced Gulf crude flows, although reports of further Iranian strikes were unverified. Separately, Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian energy facilities, damaging the Ryazan refinery and shutting a primary crude unit.
Stocks fall as governments release reserves
The US Energy Information Administration reported that American crude stocks fell by 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels in the week ending 9 October, a larger draw than analysts expected. Distillate stocks fell by a further 2.5 million barrels.
Governments are trying to cushion the squeeze. The International Energy Agency announced on Thursday that more than 20 million barrels of additional fuel would be released, and Washington offered up to 17 million barrels of crude through a Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange. Friday's price move suggests traders judged those releases too small to offset the supply risk.
What it means for Kenya
Mwenendo earlier reported on how Nairobi petrol costs KSh 12.93 more a litre this month, with the ceiling at KSh 226.96 ($1.75) and diesel at KSh 227.76 ($1.75). EPRA said then that September import costs for petrol and diesel had climbed by more than 11%, driven by Middle East tensions.
As Mwenendo earlier reported, President William Ruto extended the 8% VAT on petrol, diesel and paraffin for 90 days, which softens but does not remove the effect of dearer crude. Mwenendo also noted that the IEA expects the diesel shortage to last well into 2027, which keeps freight and food costs exposed.
A crude price near KSh 14,289 ($110) does not guarantee a higher pump price in November, because EPRA's review looks at landed costs over a full month. It does mean the pressure on transport and household budgets has not eased, and the next EPRA announcement, due by 14 November, is the date to watch.
In Summary
- What happened to Brent crude?
- Brent settled at KSh 14,270.81 ($109.86) a barrel, up 3.72% on the day, its highest close since May.
- When did it happen?
- Friday 16 October 2026, with Brent up 4.91% on the week.
- Why did prices rise?
- Attacks in the Middle East, including a missile aimed at the Yanbu port, and Ukrainian strikes on a Russian refinery tightened supply.
- Who is responding?
- The International Energy Agency announced a release of more than 20 million barrels, and Washington offered up to 17 million barrels of crude through a reserve exchange.
- Where does Kenya feel it?
- At the pump: ceilings of KSh 226.96 ($1.75) for Nairobi petrol and KSh 227.76 ($1.75) for diesel hold until 14 November.
- How will it reach pump prices?
- Through EPRA's next monthly review, which assesses import costs for the pricing month; the 8% fuel VAT stays for 90 days.