Bond Trading Tops KSh2.5T, but NSE Data Does Not Prove Investors Are Switching

That distinction matters to savers and businesses trying to understand where money is going. Bond turnover records the value of securities traded, which can include repeated trades in the same instruments. It is not the same as the total value of bonds investors own, and it does not show net purchases unless buying and selling flows are measured separately.

The 13 October market brief by Serrari Group reported secondary bond turnover of KSh2.503T for the year to 12 October. It also said offshore selling of large listed companies had contributed to a KSh40.06B fall in market value across two consecutive weeks. Those are reported market observations, not a full account of every investor’s portfolio decision.

Quarterly figures complicate a simple shift story

The Capital Markets Authority’s second-quarter 2026 statistical bulletin provides a useful comparison. It recorded total bond turnover of KSh621.83B in the quarter ended June, down from KSh1.081T in the first quarter. That was a decline of 42.49% between the two quarters.

Equity activity moved in the opposite direction over the same period. The bulletin reported that equity turnover rose to KSh263.87B in the second quarter from KSh58.39B in the first quarter, an increase of 351.93%. The figures show that both markets can change sharply from one quarter to another, and they warn against treating one headline number as proof of a lasting change in investor behaviour.

The year-to-date bond total reported in October can still be high even after a weaker second quarter, because turnover accumulates across the year. The figures also cover different periods. Comparing the first half with a year-to-date figure through 12 October without stating those dates would give readers a misleading impression of how activity has changed.

What turnover tells investors, and what it leaves out

A bond trade transfers a security between buyers and sellers. The same bond may be traded more than once, so turnover can rise without a matching increase in the total amount of money invested in the market. A fall in share-market value is different again: it reflects changes in share prices and the number of shares counted in market capitalisation, not necessarily cash withdrawn from the exchange.

To establish a broad shift from shares into bonds, analysts would need more evidence. Useful measures include net purchases by investor type, holdings of government securities, changes in collective investment funds, foreign investor flows and the amount of new money entering each market. Those measures can help separate a change in appetite from ordinary trading activity, price movements or short-term portfolio adjustments.

The Capital Markets Authority’s quarterly data also show why the comparison needs care. Bond turnover was still much larger than equity turnover in the first half of 2026, but the quarter-on-quarter direction was not the same for both markets. That is evidence of different trading patterns, not enough on its own to identify a single cause.

Mwenendo’s report on the Nairobi Securities Exchange’s 9 October close recorded the All Share Index at 244.93 and market capitalisation at KSh4.110T, down KSh6.91B from the previous session. That daily snapshot adds context to the later two-week decline reported by Serrari, but the figures cover different periods and should not be combined as if they were one measurement.

Why the distinction matters beyond the exchange

For a household, government bonds and shares carry different risks, payment patterns and routes to returns. Bonds may offer scheduled interest and repayment terms, but their market prices can still move before maturity. Shares can rise or fall with company earnings, expectations and investor demand. Neither market is automatically safer or more profitable in every circumstance.

For businesses, the wider question is whether savings are reaching productive investment. Government securities finance public borrowing, while companies can use equity and corporate debt to fund expansion. If investors prefer government paper, that preference may reflect returns, risk, liquidity or a shortage of attractive company investments. Turnover alone cannot show which explanation dominates.

The strongest conclusion from the available evidence is narrower than a sweeping migration story. Bond trading has exceeded KSh2.5T year to date, according to the October market brief, while listed-share values have faced recent pressure.

The official quarterly figures show that bond and equity turnover moved in different directions between the first and second quarters. To establish whether investors are making a sustained shift, the market needs clearer evidence on holdings and net flows, not turnover totals alone.