Glencore Raises 2026 Commodity Trading Profit Outlook Above $5B

Glencore now expects its 2026 commodity-trading profit to exceed $5 billion after a near-record first half in which volatility in oil, gas and freight markets boosted the business.

The Swiss mining and commodities group said on 2 October that its marketing adjusted operating profit for the full year should exceed $5 billion. The revised outlook is well above its previous long-term range of $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion.

Volatility is driving the upgrade

Glencore's marketing division buys, sells, transports and finances physical commodities around the world. The business benefits when disruptions create large price differences or increase demand for trading, logistics and risk management.

Reuters reported that the stronger outlook follows a near-record first half driven by volatile crude oil, refined products, gas and freight markets.

Glencore's own half-year report shows that Marketing Adjusted EBIT reached $3.3 billion in the first half, up 142% from the comparable period. Group Adjusted EBITDA rose 86% to $10.1 billion.

The company said the first half was marked by a sharp repricing of energy markets after the escalation of the Middle East conflict, with constraints affecting oil, refined products, liquefied natural gas and freight capacity.

The new numbers

The new full-year outlook puts Glencore's 2026 marketing profit above $5 billion. That is materially higher than the previous long-term guidance ceiling of $3.5 billion.

The company is not, however, saying that $5 billion is its new normal. From 2027, Glencore plans to use a revised long-term framework that gives annual marketing adjusted operating profit of about $3.5 billion, within a $2.8 billion to $4.2 billion range.

The new framework takes account of higher readily marketable inventories and higher funding costs. Glencore said its readily marketable inventories had increased as commodity prices, inflation and the scale of its business rose.

What it means for the group

The result shows how a commodities trader can benefit from the same market disruptions that create difficulties for manufacturers, transport companies and energy buyers.

For African markets, Glencore matters because the company is a major producer and trader of metals and energy commodities. Its earnings therefore provide a useful read on the value being created in global commodity trading as prices and supply routes shift.

The stronger marketing result also sits alongside a large industrial business. Glencore reported $6.5 billion of Industrial Adjusted EBITDA for the first half, up 72%, mainly reflecting stronger commodity prices.

Investors get another market

Glencore also confirmed that trading in its CHESS Depositary Interests on the Australian Securities Exchange is expected to begin on 14 October.

Each CDI represents a beneficial interest in one Glencore ordinary share. The secondary listing is intended to broaden the company's investor base and improve trading liquidity in Australia.

The immediate earnings story, however, remains tied to commodity volatility. If oil, gas and freight markets stay unusually disrupted, the marketing division has more opportunity to earn from moving and managing physical commodities. If volatility falls sharply, that tailwind can weaken.

That makes the $5 billion outlook a 2026 forecast, not a guaranteed recurring profit level.