Fuel Bit First: South Africa's Private Sector Slips to 49.0
Key Highlights
- The S&P Global South Africa PMI fell to 49.0 in September from 50.5 in August.
- New orders dropped at the fastest pace in two and a half years.
- Higher fuel prices were the main push on costs.
South Africa's private sector slipped back under the line in September.
The S&P Global PMI fell to 49.0 from 50.5 in August. A reading under 50 means activity shrank. It is the weakest month of 2026 so far, after three months of growth. The survey ran from 10 to 28 September.
New orders fell at the fastest pace in two and a half years. Firms blamed caution at home and abroad, and the fuel price. Purchase costs rose at the fastest rate since June, and fuel was the main driver. Some suppliers held deliveries until they could send a fuller truck. Delays were the longest since February 2024, with the Port of Durban and Middle East shipping named in the notes.
What did not crack
Jobs stayed broadly flat. Export orders rose for a fourth month, and faster than in August. Firms still lifted their own prices at the fastest pace since June. Expectations for the year ahead improved to a four-month high.
A Kenyan trader selling into South Africa feels this as a slower order book, not as a local tariff. Nairobi pump prices are a different market, but the same barrel sits under both. S&P said oil and fuel may stay high into the last quarter if the Middle East stays unsettled. September is one month under 50, not a recession call.
In Summary
- What is the number?
- 49.0 in September, down from 50.5 in August. Below 50 means contraction.
- Why did orders fall?
- Firms cited caution and higher fuel prices. New orders fell at the fastest rate in two and a half years.
